Star Wars: The Old Republic: Subscriptions Declining Says Analyst

Elikal

Originally posted by Epicent

And I was RIGHT about yet another mmo prediction b4 launch. When are the noobs on this site going to open their eyes to good game design and stop mindlessly following and blatantly defending crap games????? Your guess is as good as mine.

It's a conspiracy!

xZeRGz

Originally posted by Denambren

1.25 million seems a little optimistic by 2013

 

^^ this

 

 

 

ignore_me

Originally posted by donpopuki

I like SWTOR, it was a fun game. I leveled a toon to 50 for each faction. I think I got my monies worth. I enjoyed the ride but it's time to move on. It's a themepark game plain and simple. I don't expect MMOs to be religous experiances.

this post would have been totally ok if you had purchased the game in an X-box or PS3 format. It's obvious you don't even expect MMOs to be MMOs, much less any other lengthy experience.

Heffy424

Can't say I'm not surprised. I sadly felt this would happen its biggest issue is the world is to zone specific. The PvP although I haven't played much of 1.2 doesn't seem the same anymore or right (just my opinion). I honestly am starting to miss the days of SWG, DAoC and EQ, hell even WoW some.

gilgamesh42

sure thats right keep telling yourself that   more like u guys messed  things up   just for some extra christmas sales and now  the game is falling on itself this game was not ready to  launch when it  did and to top if off you guys were extremely  arrogant   btw great  job deleting threads and temp banning ppl from the forums who only tried to help anything that was not rainbows and kisses was deleted

 

Ikifales

It's almost overwhelming to read all the lying trolls on this forum. Only as moron would jump on this article and spout idiocy such as "it's a single player game with co-op". If that's the case then so is every single theme park MMO, becuase TOR is WoW with the SW IP. The only difference is that it lacks content, but that can and is being addressed. I don't blame you if you dislike it because you are burnt out on the same old them park MMO, but for love of clarity at least use honesty when criticizing it.

If anyone was intellectually honest they would acknowledge that even hiting the one million mark or above for the first year is great for an MMO.

 

 

TheCrow2k

Making an MMO with a primary focus on Individual character stories is not a recipe for longevity. TBH I felt that SWTOR would have been better as a single player RPG with 4 player co-op, perhaps with a drop in-out style like Borderlands. The game doesn't feel like an MMO should which is why I and many others haven't subscribed

iceman00

Originally posted by Nadia

from article

by the end of the current fiscal year in March 2013, the game will have around 1.25 million subscribers, based on server statistics provided on TorStatus.net

Which actually makes these numbers sorta irrelevant, since TorStatus doesn't actually have concrete numbers.  Server capacities are anyone's guess.  "active accounts" doesn't take into account those no longer playing and a sub running out, those forgetting to cancel subs, etc.

If you include those in your models, I think you'd see a different picture, especially since the analyst seems pretty "meh" on EA's marketing drive, and its impact on long term customers.

iceman00

Originally posted by Zorgo

I still contend that in this market, a 30% drop in subs is normal for this, and all mmos. I also contend, that if the problem is a lack of end game content, many of those who left will return once there is something else to do.

I think this game will still settle down with enough subs to still be one of the top populated mmos.

There is a lot about this game that surprised and disappointed me, but I still think it is an enjoyable enough experience that it won't drop out of the top 10 mmos, especially if good development decisions are made from here on out.

It probably is.  But then again, most MMOs didn't have a 250-300 million budget, or the kind of advertising team along with established name credentials, and a rabid natural fan base that the IP of TOR has.  EA's recent marketing blitz is more than most games are able to spend on the lifetime of their game.  And it still (at least according to this analyst) will result in subs being in the red even within 10 months, adopting a conservative model.  (Personally, I think the numbers will look a lot worse.)

The thing about TOR is, once these new games come out, people are going to leave, and chances are they won't be back.  There isn't anything to lure them back under the current subscription/content model.  WoW has the bustling population, content, and just flat out nostalgia of almost a decade of camraderie.  Not to mention, for those who dig what they do, nobody even comes close to doing what they do.

TOR has none of that.  When pops start declining, it's very easy for a snowball effect to build.  With a game that was originally made with near 5 million players in mind (consider only the absurd amount of servers they had), and given how expensive expansions are going to be with all the voice work, and with a reduced workforce on the project (like all games that lose subs, not even counting the 1k layoffs a good amount of which will come from the TOR side), don't expect to see the new content to draw people back.  And when you can't bring them back, don't expect a lot of new people to come. 

The investors didn't make a massive profit off this game, if any at all.  How easy do you think it will be to convince them to pony up even more money for an expansion they already didn't get a good ROI on?

Distaste

Originally posted by valkerus

From a gamer standpoint, honestly, who cares? Every MMO I have played was made 40k worse by getting popular. I'm not a shareholder or a developer so honestly i could give a rat's if they are sad with their numbers. I casually play the game and i enjoy it still. I don't space bar through convo's and i didn't have any preconceived notions of what i wanted it to be. I think quite a few people fell victim to that and that's too bad.

Either way my point is that i personally don't care what is the popular game or what consensus agrees is the must have game. The mainstream mmo community is horrid. There i said it and i know quite a few that agree. The first month of SWOTOR all i read was some teens lame drug experiences, arrow to the knee jokes, Chuck Norris references and posts asking what is the best x class. If that's what it means to be in the best game....keep it.

There seems to be some players that have some inferiority complex about not being in the "next big game"....i judge by whether i have fun. /shrug

From a MMO gamer standpoint the continued development of a MMO is based on subscribers vs cost of development. Since SWTOR has higher development costs due to Voice overs and story so it needs more subscribers to maintain that level of content. It isn't about the game being a WoW killer but rather the game going into maintenance mode(updates very few and far between, see Warhammer). The fun you had should continue with each update, but no updates means it gets stale and people quit.

I had TONS of fun in The Chronicles of Spellborn, but with no subscribers it closed and I can no longer have that fun. The people that are worried about the game definitelty care if this happens.

 

On the flip side, MMO gamers also care if SWTOR fails for another reason; the direction of the MMO genre. You see ever since WoW the direction of MMO's has veered towards shallow themeparks. Many MMO gamers wish to see it go towards indpeth virtual worlds so to speak. The first step towards that is the death of themepark mmo's and what a better example to push developers in a new direction than the most expensive and themeparky themepark to date failing.

Alders

Originally posted by dumpcat

It's almost overwhelming to read all the lying trolls on this forum. Only as moron would jump on this article and spout idiocy such as "it's a single player game with co-op". If that's the case then so is every single theme park MMO, becuase TOR is WoW with the SW IP. The only difference is that it lacks content, but that can and is being addressed. I don't blame you if you dislike it because you are burnt out on the same old them park MMO, but for love of clarity at least use honesty when criticizing it.

If anyone was intellectually honest they would acknowledge that even hiting the one million mark or above for the first year is great for an MMO.

 

If content was TOR's only problem, then it wouldn't be so bad.  There's nothing social or massive multi player about logging in and chilling on Fleet, waiting to raid twice a week.  There's nothing that promotes player interaction on planets.  There's no guild functionality.   The game is far too instanced.  There's nothing that promotes a huge war going on that i can actually affect an outcome of.

I can live with little content as long as the game provides reasons for players to log in every day and contribute in some way to their server.  Daily's are not what i'm looking for, they're 2004 content.

I'm nothing but honest.  I don't let my love for the IP cloud what i know to be wrong with a product i paid for.

Golelorn

Pretty sure we didn't need an analyst for that.

Comaf

Originally posted by mmoDAD

This game will continue to lose subscriptions. It's not worth subscribing to. It's a great single player PC game with a nice co'op. However, calling it a MMORPG is simply wrong.

This game has no player-generated content, no social realm, and absolutely no sustain.

If this game wasn't a Star Wars title, it would've already converted over to FTP.

 

SIgned.

iceman00

Originally posted by Valentina

Um, a game launching with 1.7 mil and having over 1 million at all this close after launch is pretty fantastic. Considering WoW had 350k during it's first year entirely, this is still impressive. The numbers have actually been increasing over the last  2-3 weeks, you can see it in the server selection there's more servers being populated again  when there had been a decline before.

 

Also, this is hearsay/rumor and an "analyst". Funny how when analysts say good things, nobody believes them, but when they say negative things, everyone believes them...Hahaha..

Your making an error regarding scale.  In 2004, the amount of MMO gamers was astronomically smaller.  And that "first year" was actually a few months when you pull that stat.  Yes, they achieved 350k between 2004 and 2005..... when the game released around november.

The pond is a lot bigger now.  We're talking a market with 15-20 million players, maybe even more.  Back around 2004, there was maybe 1 million, 1.5 tops.

Whether or not the numbers are "fantastic" (nobody but the ardent Bioware fans are labeling it as such), it's completely falacious to compare it to WoW in 2004.

iceman00

Originally posted by jacklo

Originally posted by EndDream

I'm not playing... but Bioware said they would have a healthy profit at 500k subs. If they have 1.2M subs in a year they will be extatic.

NO.

They said they would break even with subs of 500k over a 12 month period.

EA said that number "would be nothing to write home about."  That's optimistically saying it would be a failure, and it certainly wouldn't impress investors/shareholders.

iceman00

Originally posted by grinr

I cancelled the second I realized they are dedicating themselves to making a PvP game.

Hmm, we have the only MMO on the market that has a plot and storyline and real decisions and characters.  I know!  Let's COMPLETELY FUCKING IGNORE THAT and try to compete with the hundreds of other PvP games out there.

My hand and my face hurt.

You mean like EVE, DAOC, GW2, POTBS, or Darkfall?  Really?

Do you actually know what a "PvP game" is?

Ikifales

Originally posted by Alders

Originally posted by dumpcat

It's almost overwhelming to read all the lying trolls on this forum. Only as moron would jump on this article and spout idiocy such as "it's a single player game with co-op". If that's the case then so is every single theme park MMO, becuase TOR is WoW with the SW IP. The only difference is that it lacks content, but that can and is being addressed. I don't blame you if you dislike it because you are burnt out on the same old them park MMO, but for love of clarity at least use honesty when criticizing it.

If anyone was intellectually honest they would acknowledge that even hiting the one million mark or above for the first year is great for an MMO.

 

If content was TOR's only problem, then it wouldn't be so bad.  There's nothing social or massive multi player about logging in and chilling on Fleet, waiting to raid twice a week.  There's nothing that promotes player interaction on planets.  There's no guild functionality.   The game is far too instanced.  There's nothing that promotes a huge war going on that i can actually affect an outcome of.

I can live with little content as long as the game provides reasons for players to log in every day and contribute in some way to their server.  Daily's are not what i'm looking for, they're 2004 content.

I'm nothing but honest.  I don't let my love for the IP cloud what i know to be wrong with a product i paid for.

 

Compared to the last few MMO releases that were supposed to be big it's really not that intanced. Aion, LoTRO, AoC all way more instanced. I'm not sure what your getting at with the social aspect, I come from sandbox MMOs, I'm used to having to make an effort with very few tools. It's the payer base that kills the social aspect, same thing with WoW. I think the game has a lot of flaws, It's biggest being it's another thempark clone, but it's not a single player rpg with a multiplayer option lol.

iceman00

Originally posted by dumpcat

It's almost overwhelming to read all the lying trolls on this forum. Only as moron would jump on this article and spout idiocy such as "it's a single player game with co-op". If that's the case then so is every single theme park MMO, becuase TOR is WoW with the SW IP. The only difference is that it lacks content, but that can and is being addressed. I don't blame you if you dislike it because you are burnt out on the same old them park MMO, but for love of clarity at least use honesty when criticizing it.

If anyone was intellectually honest they would acknowledge that even hiting the one million mark or above for the first year is great for an MMO.

 

 

SW is like WoW except the latter has:

 

Boatloads more polish

An open world

On PvP servers, PvP will actually occur outside of warzones

On PvP servers, there were big raids of enemy cities.

PvE that is far better scripted

NPC's with charm.

And this is from someone who doesn't like WoW.  TOR is a knockoff of WoW that understands none of why the game was a success.

Ikifales

Originally posted by iceman00

Originally posted by grinr

I cancelled the second I realized they are dedicating themselves to making a PvP game.

Hmm, we have the only MMO on the market that has a plot and storyline and real decisions and characters.  I know!  Let's COMPLETELY FUCKING IGNORE THAT and try to compete with the hundreds of other PvP games out there.

My hand and my face hurt.

You mean like EVE, DAOC, GW2, POTBS, or Darkfall?  Really?

Do you actually know what a "PvP game" is?

 

LoL!  While i enjoy TOR, ity is not a PvP game and they are absolutley not dedicating themselves to PvP. That is like saying WoW is a PvP game. It's PvE with canned PvP thrown in the mix.

 

He should play Darkfall or Mortal Online, or maybe  DAOC and even UO or AoC for some PvP.

troublmaker

So about 1000 people losing their jobs.  These people losing their jobs come from games that are cancelled, studios that are closed down and extra staff that isn't needed.  Every time a game is launched they put out an advertisement for certain specialists.  These specialists are kept on for 2 years of the game's development and are either laid off or reassigned.

A lot of times people can keep their jobs by making DLC.  Bethesda were the first to do this with Oblivion.  They had hired on al ot of people to make Oblivion, nearly double the staff of Morrowind and they really wanted to keep everyone on... even though they couldn't afford to.  So they split up this massive staff with 80% of it working on the next big title and the other 20% working on DLC for Oblivion.

It is unlikely that they are removing 1000 jobs from Bioware.... it's one of their successful brands.

Instead you are probably seeing huge cuts to Maxis, PopCap Games and maybe closing some lesser known studios.  It is a shame, but it's not because of the failure of SWTOR.

Instead it's a failure of the whole corporation.  Every single game that releases has to have blockbuster sales.  Every single game they make costs between $80-200M (well except PopCap Games).  EA has annual salaries in the $800M/year marker.  That means they need to make at least $800M a year in sales to keep all of their staff.

Kyleran

By 2013,less than 500K..... you heard it here 1st

Grailer

I had more fun in the legend of grimrock than swtor .

 

 

xion12121

Originally posted by Arkinia

don't need an analyst  to know the truth. However, I could use an analyst to help me figure out why I bought the CE version.

             I'm afraid not even an anlyst will be able to help you answer that,  the only person that can answer that is God!!!!

bhima

After truly enjoying both KOTOR and KOTOR2, I could not for the life of me get into SWTOR. Luckily I got into the beta to find out for myself that the game was more like a sub version of KOTOR with WoW mechanics. I actually wish GW2 came out much eariler and set a new trend for themepark MMOs so Bioware could have taken so of Anet's good design decisions instead of bolting on WoW's extremely tired design decisions.

GeezerGamer

The funny thing is, if they had just done a good job of cloning WoW, they'd probably be doing fine. But not only did they recycled the same old game, they put crap out there as their flagship.