All MMOs lose a portion of their playerbase, sure. However, losing almost half your player base in the first 5 months time is not a very good sign of a strong game. It's especially not for one which was being hailed as THE game-changer before it even launched. This included the developers, the media, and the fans. Everyone was spiking the TOR hype-aid, and couldn't drink enough of it.
People who expressed doubt were called haters or trolls. They were told they didn't know what they were talking about; that they were in denial. Otherwise somewhat reserved media folks were reduced to slobbering fanboys and girls over it. The staff on this site alone were lining up to heap praise on it in column after column.
It was BioWare, and Star Wars, and Voice Acting and focused on story! How could it not be an unstoppable force in the genre! It would be a game changer! People would never be able to play another MMO again! Blizzard were positively shaking in their boots at how they were about to inevitably lose millions of their players! Yes, I saw these such claims, and others, made time and again in the months leading up to the game's launch. It was impossible to avoid for a time, even if you tried to.
Let's also think back to how many people insisted 1.7 million subs was what they had. People were using that number as proof positive that the game hadn't lost players. Those who looked beyond the PR and expressed doubt were bashed, trashed and called trolls around here and elsewhere.
Yet, here we are now with new numbers and they have, indeed, lost another large chunk of their playerbase. So now people have suddenly and conveniently forgotten all the "No! Bioware says they have 1.7 players and so that's how many they have!" business, and are focused on making 1.3 sound like that's the number and they can't possibly still be losing more. Are we really going to repeat the same thing all over again?
Are people that slow to learn? Or are they just that desperate to cling to the idea that the game they knew would be an unstoppable beast is actually a much smaller and less impressive creature, with a footprint that's shrinking considerably only 5 months into its release?
At the very least, I'd expect this to be a lesson on why it's not a good idea to get caught up in, or contribute to such hype. Why it's a bad idea to make bold declarations with an arrogance such as what was displayed by those in the TOR community, about a game that few even had a chance to play yet. Though, based on the hype around GW2 now, apparently it hasn't.
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
my statement in no way claimed that a person predicting 80% retention was a hater. It's like you're arguing just to argue.
Originally posted by Robsolf
Not exactly the 80% drop the haters were predicting...
Oh well. They have Tera, and soon will have GW2 and Secret World to bet against, now.
Right.
carry on, nothing to see here
Are you incapable of understanding the difference between 80% retention and an 80% drop in subs? Seriously?
theres also the rather confusing assumption that by 'hating' on SW;TOR, that automatically makes a candidate for hating on a bunch of other games too, i would call that 'reverse psychology' in that the hope is really that by diverting attention by mentioning other games, that negative implications will somehow be associated with those games rather than the one currently in discussion, personally i find the idea that SW;TOR somehow still has 1.3m subs absolutely freakin hillarious, pretty much on the same scales as the 'emperors new clothes' and just as tangible
All MMOs lose a portion of their playerbase, sure. However, losing almost half your player base in the first 5 months time is not a very good sign of a strong game. It's especially not for one which was being hailed as THE game-changer before it even launched. This included the developers, the media, and the fans. Everyone was spiking the TOR hype-aid, and couldn't drink enough of it.
People who expressed doubt were called haters or trolls. They were told they didn't know what they were talking about; that they were in denial. Otherwise somewhat reserved media folks were reduced to slobbering fanboys and girls over it. The staff on this site alone were lining up to heap praise on it in column after column.
It was BioWare, and Star Wars, and Voice Acting and focused on story! How could it not be an unstoppable force in the genre! It would be a game changer! People would never be able to play another MMO again! Blizzard were positively shaking in their boots at how they were about to inevitably lose millions of their players! Yes, I saw these such claims, and others, made time and again in the months leading up to the game's launch. It was impossible to avoid for a time, even if you tried to.
Let's also think back to how many people insisted 1.7 million subs was what they had. People were using that number as proof positive that the game hadn't lost players. Those who looked beyond the PR and expressed doubt were bashed, trashed and called trolls around here and elsewhere.
Yet, here we are now with new numbers and they have, indeed, lost another large chunk of their playerbase. So now people have suddenly and conveniently forgotten all the "No! Bioware says they have 1.7 players and so that's how many they have!" business, and are focused on making 1.3 sound like that's the number and they can't possibly still be losing more. Are we really going to repeat the same thing all over again?
Are people that slow to learn? Or are they just that desperate to cling to the idea that the game they knew would be an unstoppable beast is actually a much smaller and less impressive creature, with a footprint that's shrinking considerably only 5 months into its release?
At the very least, I'd expect this to be a lesson on why it's not a good idea to get caught up in, or contribute to such hype. Why it's a bad idea to make bold declarations with an arrogance such as what was displayed by those in the TOR community, about a game that few even had a chance to play yet. Though, based on the hype around GW2 now, apparently it hasn't.
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
As I mentioned in an earlier post...
Bioware claim to have sold 2.4 million units. They now have 1.3 million subs. That's a drop of 48%, pretty much half of their player base.
my statement in no way claimed that a person predicting 80% retention was a hater. It's like you're arguing just to argue.
Originally posted by Robsolf
Not exactly the 80% drop the haters were predicting...
Oh well. They have Tera, and soon will have GW2 and Secret World to bet against, now.
Right.
carry on, nothing to see here
Are you incapable of understanding the difference between 80% retention and an 80% drop in subs? Seriously?
Just pointing out your silly points. By mischaracterizing them, or just flat out not understanding them?
Oh, and just to mention, even people who said 80% retention were "haters" lol Not to me.
But of course, your selective memory selected not to memorize this mmmmyeah... My statement about haters failed to mention fanbois. Probably because I wasn't talking about fanbois.
Originally posted by TangentPoint All MMOs lose a portion of their playerbase, sure. However, losing almost half your player base in the first 5 months time is not a very good sign of a strong game. It's especially not for one which was being hailed as THE game-changer before it even launched. This included the developers, the media, and the fans. Everyone was spiking the TOR hype-aid, and couldn't drink enough of it. People who expressed doubt were called haters or trolls. They were told they didn't know what they were talking about; that they were in denial. Otherwise somewhat reserved media folks were reduced to slobbering fanboys and girls over it. The staff on this site alone were lining up to heap praise on it in column after column. It was BioWare, and Star Wars, and Voice Acting and focused on story! How could it not be an unstoppable force in the genre! It would be a game changer! People would never be able to play another MMO again! Blizzard were positively shaking in their boots at how they were about to inevitably lose millions of their players! Yes, I saw these such claims, and others, made time and again in the months leading up to the game's launch. It was impossible to avoid for a time, even if you tried to. Let's also think back to how many people insisted 1.7 million subs was what they had. People were using that number as proof positive that the game hadn't lost players. Those who looked beyond the PR and expressed doubt were bashed, trashed and called trolls around here and elsewhere. Yet, here we are now with new numbers and they have, indeed, lost another large chunk of their playerbase. So now people have suddenly and conveniently forgotten all the "No! Bioware says they have 1.7 players and so that's how many they have!" business, and are focused on making 1.3 sound like that's the number and they can't possibly still be losing more. Are we really going to repeat the same thing all over again? Are people that slow to learn? Or are they just that desperate to cling to the idea that the game they knew would be an unstoppable beast is actually a much smaller and less impressive creature, with a footprint that's shrinking considerably only 5 months into its release? At the very least, I'd expect this to be a lesson on why it's not a good idea to get caught up in, or contribute to such hype. Why it's a bad idea to make bold declarations with an arrogance such as what was displayed by those in the TOR community, about a game that few even had a chance to play yet. Though, based on the hype around GW2 now, apparently it hasn't.
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
game sold more than 1.7 million copies so if you go by copies then yes it lost about half
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
Not that I care to get involved in the math war which will probably be all the rage here again, but I would imagine he was comparing total sales to their active sub number. I would imagine those saying "half have quit" are getting their numbers from there.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
Just pointing out your silly points. By mischaracterizing them, or just flat out not understanding them?
Oh, and just to mention, even people who said 80% retention were "haters" lol Not to me.
But of course, your selective memory selected not to memorize this mmmmyeah... My statement about haters failed to mention fanbois. Probably because I wasn't talking about fanbois.
Pretty much everyone see what you did there.
Of course you wont talk about fanbois as you dont remember any fanbois apparently.
my statement in no way claimed that a person predicting 80% retention was a hater. It's like you're arguing just to argue.
Originally posted by Robsolf
Not exactly the 80% drop the haters were predicting...
Oh well. They have Tera, and soon will have GW2 and Secret World to bet against, now.
Right.
carry on, nothing to see here
Are you incapable of understanding the difference between 80% retention and an 80% drop in subs? Seriously?
theres also the rather confusing assumption that by 'hating' on SW;TOR, that automatically makes a candidate for hating on a bunch of other games too, i would call that 'reverse psychology' in that the hope is really that by diverting attention by mentioning other games, that negative implications will somehow be associated with those games rather than the one currently in discussion, personally i find the idea that SW;TOR somehow still has 1.3m subs absolutely freakin hillarious, pretty much on the same scales as the 'emperors new clothes' and just as tangible
For someone who has 2700 posts on this board, you don't seem very familiar with it. There is no shortage of career haters on this board, that can't seem to say anything positive about any MMO launched over the past 8 years.
The party is over. Once a game starts losing that many each quarter it isn't a good sign at all. I like Bioware but they really messed this up big time. The game will probably be hanging by a thread by the end of the year.
Real quick, has anyone check any other MMO forum lately? Seems all MMO's are loved to death pre-launch and then killed with words thereafter. Let's just watch what will happen to GW2, Terra, or that non-MMO Diablo III. If I were a betting man, I would say you will see exactly the same happening there.
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
Shouldn't have stopped reading... there ARE a lot of good posts in here, just have to wade through the uninformed. This is how you get to "about half":
2.4 million have purchased the game (we'll assume all played and none just tossed it in fire without playing).
1.3 million "active subscribers" currently. <-- This include people that bought in last 30 days... and some amount of players on trials.
We can't count the new purchasers, yet. We have no indication if they will stay or go... remove them from both totals. 75k sold world-wide for April is a pretty reasonable estimate based on what we know about sales.
2.325 million now have purchased AND had their 30-day free period expire.
1.225 million are 31+ days into the game OR on a free trial without purchasing the game.
We have to remove the trial people from the "active subscriber" side so we're just dealing with people that bought the game. This will be tough to measure... this is really an utter guess - as we know very little about what they are counting and what they aren't.... I'll conservatively say another 75k.
What it leaves us with is 2.325 million have purchased the game AND had their 30-day free trial expire. Of those 2.325 million, 1.150 million are still subscribers.... or 49.4%.
Just pointing out your silly points. By mischaracterizing them, or just flat out not understanding them?
Oh, and just to mention, even people who said 80% retention were "haters" lol Not to me.
But of course, your selective memory selected not to memorize this mmmmyeah... My statement about haters failed to mention fanbois. Probably because I wasn't talking about fanbois.
Pretty much everyone see what you did there. Yes, I gave my opinion about haters. Unprecedented behavior, to be sure.
Of course you wont talk about fanbois as you dont remember any fanbois apparently. Shall we dig back through your history to see if you talk about haters everytime you criticize fanbois?
Thus where selective memory comes in. You're just arguing to be arguing. I have better things to do.
Even in an MMO, new players after the first few months drop a great deal from launch. And they too will either not like the game, or like it but not stay indefinitely, the latter being people that could return when new content is developed. Even at 80% retention, there comes a point where subs will start dropping as fewer and fewer new players appear to take the place of those that quit.
Dude, if this game had anywhere near an 80% retention rate do you have any idea what their paid concurrent subs would be at - not active but paid? Think about it. Not trying to be a wiseass here but I seriously don't think you're following what retention rate refers to. That mean out of every ten people that buy the game - 8 of them decide to stay subbed on a continual basis. Which when added to new players constantly coming into the game...
I'm not even sure WoW ever had an 80% retention rate or even anything close...and look at the number of subs that game has Having less than 100% retention rate does not mean your game will always have a drop in subs. That isn't how it works. Unless you're getting no influx of new players at all.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
Real quick, has anyone check any other MMO forum lately? Seems all MMO's are loved to death pre-launch and then killed with words thereafter. Let's just watch what will happen to GW2, Terra, or that non-MMO Diablo III. If I were a betting man, I would say you will see exactly the same happening there.
Highly doubt it. EA isn't involved and ArenaNet won't release an unpolished boring game like others we know of.
Actually it is worse than that considering all the accounts they reactivated for their free month.
I think you needed an active account to get the free month.
They had an opt in reactivation for like 7 days as well, question is how many actually did that... No one here knows.
didnt need to opt in, the email said your account is active for 7 days enjoy... my account got activated for 7 days, then 2 days later got the 30 days email for having a level 50... i hadnt had an active sub since febuary... not only did they give out free time to people with active subs, but i'm sure i cant be the only one who scored 37 days of play i never used for having an inactive account for at least 2 - 3 months earlier...
Even in an MMO, new players after the first few months drop a great deal from launch. And they too will either not like the game, or like it but not stay indefinitely, the latter being people that could return when new content is developed. Even at 80% retention, there comes a point where subs will start dropping as fewer and fewer new players appear to take the place of those that quit.
Dude, if this game had anywhere near an 80% retention rate do you have any idea what their paid concurrent subs would be at - not active but paid? Think about it. Not trying to be a wiseass here but I seriously don't think you're following what retention rate refers to. That mean out of every ten people that buy the game - 8 of them decide to stay subbed on a continual basis. Which when added to new players costantly coming into the game...
I'm not even sure WoW ever had an 80% retention rate or even anything close...and look at the number of subs that game has Having less than 100% retention rate does not mean your game will always have a drop in subs. That isn't how it works. Unless you're getting no influx of new players at all.
Fair enough. It's pretty much how you define it, and I suspect that's where we're missing each others point. I consider retention rate to be how many people stay from month to month. In other words, month to month, out of 10, 2 people quit, while 8 people stay. Those 2 people may or may not come back, and may or may not be replaced by new players.
If retention rate means, "how many people stay indefinitely, period", then the figure really doesn't mean alot in terms of determining the overall subscriber base. SWG kept me for 2-3 years, but still not indefinitely. Isn't 2-3 years a pretty decent success for an MMO?
Dude, fucking Warhammer is "maintaining" with 2000 subscribers, if that.
Still running doesn't always mean not dead.
And I think it's funny that the attitude toward SWTOR went like this
SWTOR is announced: "WoW KILLER!"
December 2011: "It's still growing!"
One month laster: "Well it's stable"
Now: "T-they can s-still maintain with 1.3 million!"
Why are you getting so angry?
Because this is a very importent time for gaming. With indie developers showing up like crazy, we finally have a chance to have a world without companies like EA. But for every blind fanboy who gives them money, were one more person away from seeing them purged
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG! Thank you so much for this... You made my day with this post.
Fair enough. It's pretty much how you define it, and I suspect that's where we're missing each others point. I consider retention rate to be how many people stay from month to month. In other words, month to month, out of 10, 2 people quit, while 8 people stay. Those 2 people may or may not come back, and may or may not be replaced by new players.
If retention rate means, "how many people stay indefinitely, period", then the figure really doesn't mean alot in terms of determining the overall subscriber base. SWG kept me for 2-3 years, but still not indefinitely. Isn't 2-3 years a pretty decent success for an MMO?
Well...not indefinite of course. I think we're more or less on the same page to a degree. That is actually what I was referring to. Think you actually explained it better than I did. XD
Which begs the question how you could think that is remotely close to what is going on here or is realistic with just about any game?
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
AS soon as the 2nd Coming of MMO's is released, ahem GW2, watch for the same over hyped kiddies get a dose of reality that the game is like any other games. Also even after BETA it was plastered by the rage forum posters, all MMO's with the current generation of kids are doomed to unrealistic hype and insane amount hyperbole.
TERA has the same doomers, and so will GW2. SWTOR has it now cause it was the new guy.
It's like the stupid Justin Bieber vs (any other singer) arguments on the internet, it's pathetic really.
Fair enough. It's pretty much how you define it, and I suspect that's where we're missing each others point. I consider retention rate to be how many people stay from month to month. In other words, month to month, out of 10, 2 people quit, while 8 people stay. Those 2 people may or may not come back, and may or may not be replaced by new players.
If retention rate means, "how many people stay indefinitely, period", then the figure really doesn't mean alot in terms of determining the overall subscriber base. SWG kept me for 2-3 years, but still not indefinitely. Isn't 2-3 years a pretty decent success for an MMO?
Well...not indefinite of course. I think we're more or less on the same page to a degree. That is actually what I was referring to. Think you actually explained it better than I did. XD
Which begs the question how you could think that is remotely close to what is going on here or is realistic with just about any game?
Well, IMO, it's realistic because it's really not as great as it sounds.
Consider launch numbers. How many did they say they had? 1.7 million subs? a month goes by. For every 8 people that stay, 2 go. That means, in order to break even they need to sell 340k more boxes in the new month.
For the second month, this seems possible. But this demand goes on indefinitely. 6 months from launch, it's pretty unlikely that they'll hit that number of sales, so therefore, the game will start losing subs.
And that's what we're seeing, I think. I don't have the numbers but I highly doubt that the game is selling anything near 340k boxes a month now, and probably hasn't for a couple months at least. Therefore 2 are leaving and not getting replaced as they were before, and 8 are staying.
1.7 to 1.3 million subs= 23-24%? 80% retention could get close, the way I see it.
As time passes the number is getting closer and closer to SWG at it's peak number of subscribers. When that happens will this game be considered "Niche," and then can be allowed to have some sandbox style content?
The Themers postulate that they are the only ones who can pay the bills so I guess if a game runs low on subs it can be a better game by that formula (Only small games can be good [non-linear] games).
1.3 million paying customers, making it easily the second largest western MMO, is... Dying?
Because, you know, it's not like newly released MMOs typically lose subscribers after a few months.
They sold 2.3 million copies. They have 1.3 million subs.
THEY LOST 1 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS IN FOUR MONTHS....
HELLO?!
ANYONE THERE MAVERICK?!
Actually it is worse than that considering all the accounts they reactivated for their free month.
Read... then comment...
The 1.3 number is from the end of their last quarter (ended in March). The reactivation program was in April.
But it's clear that no matter what is said about this game, you only have negativity/doubt in your mind, so I somehow suspect you'll come up with another excuse...
Most of you are delusional. Here is an example from the beginning of February: Can I get the next winning lottery numbers from all of you gurus?
Originally posted by Teala 2/3/12
There is no way in hell they retained 85% of their playbase. I'd bet mylife on that. In fact I'd bet right - today as of now, this game has more like 1.2 million subs and has lost upwards of 750k since release. That means they have seen 45% loss in players since the games release.
Tag this...and in 2 months we'll come back to these words I typed, because I am about to make another prediction. I predict within 2 more months this game is going to be nearing 500k subs.
Comments
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ab/Norsefire-logo.png
theres also the rather confusing assumption that by 'hating' on SW;TOR, that automatically makes a candidate for hating on a bunch of other games too, i would call that 'reverse psychology' in that the hope is really that by diverting attention by mentioning other games, that negative implications will somehow be associated with those games rather than the one currently in discussion, personally i find the idea that SW;TOR somehow still has 1.3m subs absolutely freakin hillarious, pretty much on the same scales as the 'emperors new clothes' and just as tangible
As I mentioned in an earlier post...
Bioware claim to have sold 2.4 million units. They now have 1.3 million subs. That's a drop of 48%, pretty much half of their player base.
I stopped reading once I hit your exaggerated 'Half their playerbase'
1.7 - 1.3 = .4 =!= 50%
Break it down even more
1.7/.5 = 8.5
1.3/.5 = 6.5
0.4/.5 = 0.2
well Ok the bit did not work
*scratches head*
BUT either way 1.7 Million - 400K is more like 1/4 of the active playebase rather than 1/2
game sold more than 1.7 million copies so if you go by copies then yes it lost about halfI angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
Not that I care to get involved in the math war which will probably be all the rage here again, but I would imagine he was comparing total sales to their active sub number. I would imagine those saying "half have quit" are getting their numbers from there.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
Pretty much everyone see what you did there.
Of course you wont talk about fanbois as you dont remember any fanbois apparently.
Thus where selective memory comes in.
For someone who has 2700 posts on this board, you don't seem very familiar with it. There is no shortage of career haters on this board, that can't seem to say anything positive about any MMO launched over the past 8 years.
The party is over. Once a game starts losing that many each quarter it isn't a good sign at all. I like Bioware but they really messed this up big time. The game will probably be hanging by a thread by the end of the year.
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
Oh no! Doom and gloom about an MMO!
Real quick, has anyone check any other MMO forum lately? Seems all MMO's are loved to death pre-launch and then killed with words thereafter. Let's just watch what will happen to GW2, Terra, or that non-MMO Diablo III. If I were a betting man, I would say you will see exactly the same happening there.
Let's party like it is 1863!
Shouldn't have stopped reading... there ARE a lot of good posts in here, just have to wade through the uninformed. This is how you get to "about half":
2.4 million have purchased the game (we'll assume all played and none just tossed it in fire without playing).
1.3 million "active subscribers" currently. <-- This include people that bought in last 30 days... and some amount of players on trials.
We can't count the new purchasers, yet. We have no indication if they will stay or go... remove them from both totals. 75k sold world-wide for April is a pretty reasonable estimate based on what we know about sales.
2.325 million now have purchased AND had their 30-day free period expire.
1.225 million are 31+ days into the game OR on a free trial without purchasing the game.
We have to remove the trial people from the "active subscriber" side so we're just dealing with people that bought the game. This will be tough to measure... this is really an utter guess - as we know very little about what they are counting and what they aren't.... I'll conservatively say another 75k.
What it leaves us with is 2.325 million have purchased the game AND had their 30-day free trial expire. Of those 2.325 million, 1.150 million are still subscribers.... or 49.4%.
Dude, if this game had anywhere near an 80% retention rate do you have any idea what their paid concurrent subs would be at - not active but paid? Think about it. Not trying to be a wiseass here but I seriously don't think you're following what retention rate refers to. That mean out of every ten people that buy the game - 8 of them decide to stay subbed on a continual basis. Which when added to new players constantly coming into the game...
I'm not even sure WoW ever had an 80% retention rate or even anything close...and look at the number of subs that game has Having less than 100% retention rate does not mean your game will always have a drop in subs. That isn't how it works. Unless you're getting no influx of new players at all.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
Not surprised could had predicted this ... oh wait... I did when I canceled my sub after hitting lvl cap twice.
Highly doubt it. EA isn't involved and ArenaNet won't release an unpolished boring game like others we know of.
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
didnt need to opt in, the email said your account is active for 7 days enjoy... my account got activated for 7 days, then 2 days later got the 30 days email for having a level 50... i hadnt had an active sub since febuary... not only did they give out free time to people with active subs, but i'm sure i cant be the only one who scored 37 days of play i never used for having an inactive account for at least 2 - 3 months earlier...
Fair enough. It's pretty much how you define it, and I suspect that's where we're missing each others point. I consider retention rate to be how many people stay from month to month. In other words, month to month, out of 10, 2 people quit, while 8 people stay. Those 2 people may or may not come back, and may or may not be replaced by new players.
If retention rate means, "how many people stay indefinitely, period", then the figure really doesn't mean alot in terms of determining the overall subscriber base. SWG kept me for 2-3 years, but still not indefinitely. Isn't 2-3 years a pretty decent success for an MMO?
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OMG! Thank you so much for this... You made my day with this post.
Lord...
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
Well...not indefinite of course. I think we're more or less on the same page to a degree. That is actually what I was referring to. Think you actually explained it better than I did. XD
Which begs the question how you could think that is remotely close to what is going on here or is realistic with just about any game?
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
AS soon as the 2nd Coming of MMO's is released, ahem GW2, watch for the same over hyped kiddies get a dose of reality that the game is like any other games. Also even after BETA it was plastered by the rage forum posters, all MMO's with the current generation of kids are doomed to unrealistic hype and insane amount hyperbole.
TERA has the same doomers, and so will GW2. SWTOR has it now cause it was the new guy.
It's like the stupid Justin Bieber vs (any other singer) arguments on the internet, it's pathetic really.
Well, IMO, it's realistic because it's really not as great as it sounds.
Consider launch numbers. How many did they say they had? 1.7 million subs? a month goes by. For every 8 people that stay, 2 go. That means, in order to break even they need to sell 340k more boxes in the new month.
For the second month, this seems possible. But this demand goes on indefinitely. 6 months from launch, it's pretty unlikely that they'll hit that number of sales, so therefore, the game will start losing subs.
And that's what we're seeing, I think. I don't have the numbers but I highly doubt that the game is selling anything near 340k boxes a month now, and probably hasn't for a couple months at least. Therefore 2 are leaving and not getting replaced as they were before, and 8 are staying.
1.7 to 1.3 million subs= 23-24%? 80% retention could get close, the way I see it.
As time passes the number is getting closer and closer to SWG at it's peak number of subscribers. When that happens will this game be considered "Niche," and then can be allowed to have some sandbox style content?
The Themers postulate that they are the only ones who can pay the bills so I guess if a game runs low on subs it can be a better game by that formula (Only small games can be good [non-linear] games).
Survivor of the great MMORPG Famine of 2011
Oh no, now it's not the #2 MMO in the West anymore!
Oh, wait, it still is.
Personally I don't understand how people can still enjoy it after the first month or so, but more power to ya if you do.
Read... then comment...
The 1.3 number is from the end of their last quarter (ended in March). The reactivation program was in April.
But it's clear that no matter what is said about this game, you only have negativity/doubt in your mind, so I somehow suspect you'll come up with another excuse...
Most of you are delusional. Here is an example from the beginning of February: Can I get the next winning lottery numbers from all of you gurus?