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SWG Subscription discussion
pirrg
Member Posts: 1,443
Alright, im going to try to be as unbiased and constructive as possible so i ask the same from you guys, please dont flame this topic to death. Please read the ENTIRE post before responding, thank you in advance.
Several months back a log of the server populations was popping up here and there on the forums, claiming that all the servers had approx to 400-500 players on them, im sure you remember this as it caused much controversy. I think we can calculate the current user playerbase to around 100-150k using these numbers. How? Read on..
Pretty much every mmo on the market follows a pattern when it comes to sub numbers. That pattern is that there are approx 15 to 20% players online at any given time. Eve online and DAOC are both proof that this theory is sound.
Eve online has approx 130k subscribers, with around 20k players online at primetime.
Now lets look at SWG's numbers.
According to the "players logged in" log that was posted here several months ago, SWG had about 400-500 players online, multiplied by 26 (26 servers) that becomes 13000. Divided by 0.15 (15%) that becomes 86,666. Or, divided by 0.20 it turns out to 65,000.
Keeping in mind that this was just a few months after the NGE's release when the games subscription levels were at an all time low due to mass cancellations, and that this was before the expertise system, auto aim, restuss and several
other features. Its only fair to assume that swg has even more
subscribers now.
Anyway, thats my take on it.
Several months back a log of the server populations was popping up here and there on the forums, claiming that all the servers had approx to 400-500 players on them, im sure you remember this as it caused much controversy. I think we can calculate the current user playerbase to around 100-150k using these numbers. How? Read on..
Pretty much every mmo on the market follows a pattern when it comes to sub numbers. That pattern is that there are approx 15 to 20% players online at any given time. Eve online and DAOC are both proof that this theory is sound.
Eve online has approx 130k subscribers, with around 20k players online at primetime.
Now lets look at SWG's numbers.
According to the "players logged in" log that was posted here several months ago, SWG had about 400-500 players online, multiplied by 26 (26 servers) that becomes 13000. Divided by 0.15 (15%) that becomes 86,666. Or, divided by 0.20 it turns out to 65,000.
Keeping in mind that this was just a few months after the NGE's release when the games subscription levels were at an all time low due to mass cancellations, and that this was before the expertise system, auto aim, restuss and several
other features. Its only fair to assume that swg has even more
subscribers now.
Anyway, thats my take on it.
_____________________
I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Why should we believe you anyway? Your infomation is based on a bunch of statistics and precedents used by other MMO's. Your equations and formulas, They hold no water. Considering they aren't even entirely accurate. The only infomation regarding the number of subscribers that would be remotely accurate, Would be the one that SOE holds in their own greedy hands. Of course, I wouldn't even trust that infomation. Considering this is SOE after all.
Pirrg, why do you even care what the subscriber numbers are anyway? Aren't you enjoying your precious NGE? If so, then why aren't you playing it?
This isn't meant to be a flame, I appreciate that you are actually handling this in a pretty peaceful way, considering most of us find your posts to be Snide, and bashing towards the Vet Community.
Why should we believe you anyway? Your infomation is based on a bunch of statistics and precedents used by other MMO's. Your equations and formulas, They hold no water. Considering they aren't even entirely accurate. The only infomation regarding the number of subscribers that would be remotely accurate, Would be the one that SOE holds in their own greedy hands. Of course, I wouldn't even trust that infomation. Considering this is SOE after all.
Pirrg, why do you even care what the subscriber numbers are anyway? Aren't you enjoying your precious NGE? If so, then why aren't you playing it?
This isn't meant to be a flame, I appreciate that you are actually handling this in a pretty peaceful way, considering most of us find your posts to be Snide, and bashing towards the Vet Community.
Because some people get so darned upset when i claim the game has 100k+ subs in other threads, i figured i might aswell explain to them where i was comming from and that i didnt simply pull that number from thin air. Again these numbers are calculated from a log posted by a self-proclaimed "nge hater".
_____________________
I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.
SWG is in many aspects an old game, and the active player population is dropping, but not the subscriptions. Also, returning players who just want to try might play for a day, but subscribe for a month.
But the $60 question here is the following:
Assuming the population turnaround, how many would SWG have today, if NGE hadn't happened, and TooW were the last notable addition? More? Or less?
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Precisely. There is no reliable data of any kind, leaving only subjective impressions of subscriber levels, i.e., does the game feel more or less populated than it used to.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
At MOST it might have slowed the hemmoraging.
That, and you CANNOT add the access pass people to your subscriptionestimates of SWG. Why?
Because the server load stats TAKE THOSE NUMBERS INTO ACCOUNT. 150 players online is 150 players online, it doesn't matter HOW THEY PAY.
So... the rough estimates from before as SWG being in the 45-50's is still accurate. Adding access pass players is just cooking the books. Just becuse they CAN play, doesn't mean they do. The sniffed numbers are totally unbiased.
Shayde - SWG (dead)
Proud member of the Cabal.
It sounds great, so great in fact, I pitty those who canceled
I don't like it when you say things. - A Vanguard fan who does too.
09f911029d74e35bd84156c5635688c0
I'd say 500 as an average on those old server stats was a trifle optimistic but only slightly - my guess would be 450. Bria was at about 900 i recall and the lowest were about 150 but there were more of the relatively sparsely populated servers. Either way, it can't be too hard for someone to necro the post and get a proper average.
It does seem like there has been a small trickle of players returning but I doubt that would be sufficient to offset the loss of the naive subscribers on long-term plans and those who were slow/disorganised in cancelling when the NGE hit.
Bria as the most populated server would I expect have kept a larger percentage of its player base, due to the effect of cross-server migrations to the populated servers, but, and I admit this is just based on my personal observation, I would guess the current player numbers are about 10-20% of the peak. Considering that most servers will have been worse hit, I'd guess an average of 10% of peak players would be correct across all servers. As peak subscriptions were 500k that sould suggest a current subscriber base of 50k.
If you report posts and whine about them being off-topic, you'd better take the rulebook from up your arsehole - it'll chafe terribly.
Now its 100-150k lol when before you claimed it was 250k getting your stats messed up? that what happens when you get your lies mixed up LOL. Maybe you should see if yu can get an itern job at SOE there you can learn how to lie 1/2 way decent. Enjoy the beta testing
We're sitting in our offices thinking of ways to upset our paying customers. I think were on track to meet that goal.
John Smedley
Thing is, after all, the login data is freely available now in the all too known project publically available, so you can just use that to sniff current loads.
No, they no longer report the number, but you can see the range.
And there's another way to list all currently logged in players with names in entire galaxy, but I won't go there since it's too easily abusable.
Using this method, and concurrent logins, it's possible to work out unique accounts active in current galaxy using only trial account. Running such snoop over longer period of time gives you a very nice breakdown on players and their behaviours, not to mention their login times, their movements and more. For the sake of simplicity, this number can then be divided by 2.5 (multiple char slots/character), post-processed to eliminate same accounts/different galaxies and so on.
The data that was sampled was just that, a point sample. But there's plenty of ways to figure out so much more it's almost scary.
Here's the numbers posted:
Friday evening, primetime for MMO's.
ID: 24 - Name: Europe-Infinity - IP: 195.33.138.101 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0334
ID: 23 - Name: Europe-FarStar - IP: 195.33.138.75 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0133
ID: 22 - Name: Europe-Chimaera - IP: 195.33.138.41 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0331
ID: 1C - Name: Shadowfire - IP: 199.108.197.130 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0518
ID: 1B - Name: Wanderhome - IP: 199.108.197.103 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0462
ID: 1A - Name: Tarquinas - IP: 199.108.197.87 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0456
ID: 19 - Name: Starsider - IP: 199.108.197.50 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0414
ID: 13 - Name: Tempest - IP: 199.108.7.148 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0457
ID: 12 - Name: Valcyn - IP: 199.108.7.111 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0455
ID: 11 - Name: Sunrunner - IP: 199.108.7.73 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0493
ID: 10 - Name: Scylla - IP: 199.108.7.50 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0457
ID: 0F - Name: Naritus - IP: 199.108.8.137 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0496
ID: 0E - Name: Kettemoor - IP: 199.108.8.117 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0522
ID: 0D - Name: Intrepid - IP: 199.108.6.178 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0456
ID: 0C - Name: Flurry - IP: 199.108.6.133 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0473
ID: 0B - Name: Radiant - IP: 199.108.198.70 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0266
ID: 0A - Name: Lowca - IP: 199.108.198.36 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0227
ID: 09 - Name: Kauri - IP: 199.108.196.178 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0245
ID: 08 - Name: Gorath - IP: 199.108.196.131 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0271
ID: 07 - Name: Eclipse - IP: 199.108.196.101 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0397
ID: 06 - Name: Chilastra - IP: 199.108.196.84 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0357
ID: 05 - Name: Bloodfin - IP: 199.108.196.40 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0441
ID: 04 - Name: Corbantis - IP: 199.108.6.105 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0460
ID: 03 - Name: Ahazi - IP: 199.108.6.79 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0520
ID: 02 - Name: Bria - IP: 199.108.6.53 - PortA: 44463 - PortB: 44462 - Population: 0722
After these were posted, SOE changed the way the launcher worked, and numbers are no longer available, only the status: heavy-light-very light etc.
Here are the numbers per status:
Full = 3000
Extreamly Heavy = 1500
Very Heavy = 1200
Heavy = 900
Medium = 600
Light = 300
Very Light = 0
These however are from before the NGE, and the numbers now are unknown, as they have been adjusted downwards.
Well as long as we all agree that SWG is operating at almost/over 100K less subscribers then it's median subscriber base of 250K subscribers, then I'm happy
In other words, SWG lost 2/5'ths (AKA 40%) of it's dedicated subscribers. Wow a really successfully managed MMORPG!
--When you resubscribe to SWG, an 18 yearold Stripper finds Jesus, gives up stripping, and moves with a rolex reverend to Hawaii.
--In MMORPG's l007 is the opiate of the masses.
--The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence!
--CCP could cut off an Eve player's fun bits, and that player would say that it was good CCP did that.
Another Biased BS post by Pirrg... wow, what a shocker... let's shoot holes...
Does anyone think the Pop has even Doubled? Please...
I'll start my own SWG... with Black Jack... and Hookers!!!
In fact, forget the SWG!!!!
Does anyone think the Pop has even Doubled? Please...
I'd have a really hard time finding an MMO with 30% rate.
Based on MMO chart's data, WoW in China has 8% rate (300k concurrent, 4 mil subs; from 2.5 mil western + 4 mil China = 6.5 mil total, same site quote).
There is no other relevant data to compare.
But who cares...
Well I was reading this lot and thought bugger it, my misses (for some silly, "emotional" reason) subbed us both up about 3 weeks ago, so ealier on today at around 7 pm paris time I went and logged on.
Ok so its Thursday at 7 pm Paris time, Pre CU, I would expect to see Corolag to be more or less full, prob about 3 or 4 docs there buffing in the main square and anywhere between 4 to 10 people advertising to sell/thier shop, etc, plus then you would have the 2 to 3 people right next to each other asking for a solo grp. Plus eneought people bussling around in that little squre right outside the star port to lag just about every damn thing you did for up to 20 secs if not more
So lets say I was used to seeing 100 people, BUT just at that point Post NGE. I saw 1 person, and he/she asked me on what planet MO was!!???
So I decided that I would look else where even tho I looked at the severs and ALL but three where VERY LIGHT and the other 3 where light, and i had only seen one peson, so I went to MO, usually a busy little place, now and then getting a Jedi running in being ganked, or a person being chased by a jedi, plus peole advertising for spaces in grps and entertainers doing there stuff with usully the same 2 or 3 docs there. I saw NO ONE AT ALL, and I didnt see ANYONE untill I went to Rori, where I found 25 to 30 Imps fighting against a simalar number of Rebs in Restuss.
I visited 5 planets in all and landed in multiple locations on a Thursday night between 7pm and 7:30(ish) pm Paris time, and saw all in all 61 people tops. And people belive that there are eneough subs to keep this game going??
Now this is not stats this is not me pulling numbers out of my arse its what I saw! I might go on tomorrow and do a 2 hr recon from 5pm til 7pm to see how many people I see then, I doubt it will be many more.
NGE Refugee.
Another Biased BS post by Pirrg... wow, what a shocker... let's shoot holes...
Does anyone think the Pop has even Doubled? Please...
1. Since i compared it to EvE primetime i figured you would understand that i also meant SWG primetime.. but i guess you didnt.
2. 30%!? Bwahaha.. alrighty, im not even going to bother with the rest of your post as its obvious youre just trying to instigate a flamewar.
And i thought 15-20% was being generous.
_____________________
I am the flipside of the coin on which the troll and the fanboy are but one side.
I honestly don't care how many subscribers there are. I've seen the deserted planets. Throw around any number you like and it's not going to change that. Anyway, WoW has millions of subscribers and look how lame that is. The game I'm playing now has 800-900 players on it's one and only server at a time but it's 90% perfect in my opinion.
I don't think much of your opinoins, Pirrg. You keep your eyes closed on purpose I think. You're a person like the rest of us though so I really suggest you go enjoy SWG while you can. Don't even worry about us here on the outside. I wish I had the ability to continue having fun in Galaxies.
Ummmm...133 + 722 = 855 855 / 2 = 427.5 (428)
Seeing as there were 26 servers are you expecting me to believe that the average of all 26 = 428 as well? Nice coincidence that all 26 averaged equalled the highest and lowest averaged!
Now...did you actually add all 26 populations together and divide by 26? If not, you'll see that the 133 was an aberration bringing your calculation down (European server off hours?) and your actual average is probably significantly higher. To be statistically fair you might consider throwing out the bottom 2 and top 2 figures and going from there. **** UPDATED I looked at the list you must have looked at and it appears 414 is the correct number using all 25 shown....mea culpa.
But it still looks like you only averaged the top and bottom. And I too do not agree with 30%.
I'm on your side as far as pre-CU goes MX13, but you gotta cook your numbers better!
Until Pirrg said "Its only fair to assume that swg has even more subscribers now" I thought he made a sound estimate.
I realize I said I quit. I never said it was forever
When i logged in 3 months ago and Eclipse was struggling. I mean i really didnt see many people anywhere.
Now its like it was CU time. More people comng back.. I have to admit SOE havent brought pre-cu back but they do seem to be workng on the game alot. Check the last few publishes. Its like they now have a base they want to work on and are doing it. Yes theres a long way to go. However i can see the game growing. Not from new subs but from vets returning. I'm only going on by what I see.
I am kinda enjoying it. I thnk the only thing that kept me occupied pre-cu was grinding Jedi really. I dont log in for as many hours but when i am logged in i have things to do. Like loot runs and pvp.
I dont care about how many people are subscribing atm, what i care about is that its significantly less than before the nge. The point is, our game was turned upside down for this, the nge. Thats crap.
I dont care about how the game is being "built upon". I dont care if they've now got a nice "base" for the nge. I dont care that the subs arent plumeting anymore, that some simblance of life is startig to show on servers. Because we had a nice little "base" and thriving servers pre-cu. So I could really give a rats ass if the nge is now a 2 on teh suck meter instead of a 1.
So you think the NGE has 150k people? omg thats so impressive!! I recant! the NGE is a blazing successsss! rofl
For the Horde!