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So many new mmorpgs but are any actually going to turn out succesful?
GIANT_WANG
Member Posts: 40
I've seen soo many new mmorpg's all promising that they'll be the new thing --> all promising they'll revolutionise the genre with their new and 'awesome' ideas.
But beyond say, the top 5 most hyped games on this site, is anyone remotely interested? An mmorpg takes up alot of a players time as well as having a monthly fee to boot; I can't see many people playing more than one at a time.
And this leads to my question --> Will the majority of the up-coming mmo's ranked low on the hype metre ever see release day? More mmo's on the market to compete with the giants like EQ and WoW is good but the number currently in developement just seems far from realistic imo.
Please discussion and not flames :P
Played and enjoyed: EQ1, DAoC, WoW
Played and disliked: Guild Wars, WAR
Currently playing: Nothing
Waiting for: Mortal Online
Comments
I think Burning Crusade will draw thousands away from other games.
Age of Conan should be somewhat popular, due to M rated games not selling well.
Star Trek will fail. So will LotR and Vanguard. Well, maybe not "fail", but they will have unimpressive numbers. Huxley can either do good or bad. Really a toss up.
I think age of conan looks to be the worst mmorpg ever made but thats just my opinion :P
Played and enjoyed: EQ1, DAoC, WoW
Played and disliked: Guild Wars, WAR
Currently playing: Nothing
Waiting for: Mortal Online
How are we determining successful? 100k subscribers? 1 million?
I am sure that AoC and WAR will hit 100k at some point, but will they maintain that level or grow?
Outside of those, who knows.
Vangaurd seems to be a dark horse, too early to tell.
My RL Friend is in the Vanguard Beta and all I can say is stand by for a A$$ beating WoW!!!
Age of Conan looks nice too. Hopefully it will keep the kiddies where they belong (In WoW) and parents need to be held accountable in some way since their kids wont be (or should not be able to) talk them into playing Age of Conan since it has an "M" Rating. Go look it up!
"MATURE
Titles rated M (Mature) have content that may be
suitable for persons ages 17 and older. Titles in this category
may contain intense violence, blood and gore, sexual content and/or
strong language."
12 yr olds have no business in AoC..Period!
Parents that dont monitor their kids in an MMO (The kids that do and say what they want to others ingame with no remorse or consequenses) need to be punched in the face! lol
Yes, there are adults out there too that act just like the 12 yr olds (I use this age as a general idea). To them all I will say is: Move the out of your parents house! Now! Do it! And then Grow the F up.
Nobody is perfect...My name is Nobody
Anarchy Online....That game will never die
There!, thats one
anarchy online and eve.
_________________________________
playing:
ww2online: Fader
EVE: Fader Bane
proud member of BKB http://www.bkbhq.com/
www.thronesofchaos.com
will be the biggest pvp mmo in 2007. mark my words.
I don't see how any of these new MMORPG are pushing the limits with new ideas and such. I just see more of the same....
Others like Warhammer Online, aka DAOC 2, will do very well I think, there are a lot of ex-DAOC players out there who trust Mythic to do a good job with the game, not to mention the draw of Warhammer fans.
Tabula Rasa might do well, it seems promising, but I honestly question whether or not a sci-fi game will ever make a big impact in the sphere.
Hero's Journey has a lot of things going for it, especially for those of us that know Simutronics from their text games. As long as they focus on making the game a success, and not just licensing the engine, it should be fairly popular.
LOTRO? Hard to say. Popular theme, but I think a lot of people are worried about how fun the game will be.
Well EVE-Online...not bad for a company that started out in a garage in iceland...(do they have garages?) I can remember the low numbers three years ago...2-3k max...todays numbers (even accounting the multi accounts) have been steady increase for the last two years.
This is where MMORPG experience comes into play. I'm not speaking of any game in particular, but many of them never see the light of day, while others take to long to get released and when they do they are forced out with subpar performance.
Now will any of these current upcoming releases be a hit? I believe so, but maybe only a couple. WAR will be a hit. It will have a subscriber base that of betwee WoW and 500k. Vanguard will also have a decent subscriber base (250kish), because they will be on the Station Pass with SOE. The rest of the games, although I think they look good and would like them to succeed are not breaking the mold really and if they are, they aren't marketing well enough to draw in a large enough crowd to make a dent in the population. Vanguard in my opinion is replacing EQ, so that one will make it. WAR is replacing DAoC, so that one will thrive as well, plus it is already appealing to the WoW masses. DAoC, WoW, and EQ were all hits and anygame that is released far enough down the line that looks as if it could replace it, will become popular. If Vanguard was release 2 years ago or a few years from now it would not make it, but it's release is convenient for those in EQ that are finally maxed out and tired of the game, yet don't like all the changes EQ2 brought to the table.
WAR offers RVR, a staple in DAoC, and has the graphics that the WoW fanbase enjoys, plus it is being developed by the best company out there and it has a huge following from the table top games, just like WoW had the following from it RTS games.
Like I said, I wish games like AoC, Darkfall, The Chronicle, and Roma Victor could become great, but they simply aren't filling a void that already isn't taken care of at the moment or that has a huge enough following to make it a hit from the get go.
AoC has a lot of followers from this sight as well as Darkfall, but AoC isn't marketing right and the Open PvP community isn't large enough to make a game a hit. The Chronicle keeps delaying and is also in the same boat as Darkfall, Roma Victor already flopped.
What deserves to be done, deserves to be "well" done...
EVE - 125k+ and growing
SWG - Dying since the NGE but was, for a very long time, a top 10 MMORPG (yes, even AFTER WoW came out)
Both have over 100k subscribers. As of last year SWG was in the top 8 MMORPG's on the 'net for over 2 years (pre NGE) EVE just climbed over 125k subscribers this year and is still growing.
The true definition of "successful" is: Profitable and able to pay back it's development costs. WoW isn't successful... it's a blockbuster. EQ1 was a blockbuster. EQ2 is a blockbuster. SWG was a blockbuster. DAOC was a blockbuster (anything over 100k users is a blockbuster since it only takes about 40-50k subscribers to break into the black, and you only need that many for a year or so).
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
With all the trekkies around Star Trek WIll be a big HIT. Same goes for Lotr. They have a instant intrested player base just because of populairity of the movies. SWG was a big hit in the beginning 70% off peeps that started in the beginning had no prior mmorpg experience.
Vanguard has a good change of failing i agree
With all the trekkies around Star Trek WIll be a big HIT. Same goes for Lotr. They have a instant intrested player base just because of populairity of the movies. SWG was a big hit in the beginning 70% off peeps that started in the beginning had no prior mmorpg experience.
Vanguard has a good change of failing i agree
No, sorry, it won't. Riddle me this: How many Star Trek titles, over the years, have sold well?
Answer: 0
How do you make "Star Trek" fun in an MMORPG format? It's all about the interaction of the characters. It's not about going out and killing badguys and never has been. That's the problem. Star Trek just DOESNT translate well into video games. I just don't see the MMO version doing well. I hope I'm wrong, I'm a huge Star Trek fan (actually a sci-fi nut in general) but I have yet to see a Star Trek title turn out to be worth a crap.
As to LOTR: See DDO
SAME exact dynamics working in it's favor.
SAME exact developer working on the game.
I expect to see the SAME exact result: A mediocre game that attracts initial attention then flops due to poor execution by Turbine.
Note: Again this is one I REALLY hope I'm wrong on because I grew up on JRR Tolkien... I've actually read every single work he's ever written, multiple times. I still actively play on a tolkien based MUD, in fact, MUME (Multi Users in Middle Earth). But I just don't think Turbine is going to live up to the Tolkien fan base's expectations. Period.
Oh, and, like Star Trek: There has never been a tolkien based game that's sold well. Even the recent ones only did 'so so' and aren't particularly popular.
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
Burning Crusade - Of course it will sell well, despite the obvious and glaring flaws in WoW, the fan-boy base will still be buying it in droves. And despite their constant complaining on the official forums, they'll pretty much buy anything Blizzard throws them.
LotRO - ugh, hard to say here. Mainly because I have so much love for Tolkien's world, but Turbine doesn't exactly have a winning record. But hey, everyone (hopefully) at some point has something that turns things around for them. Unfortunately the general consensus is that Turbine will develop a great game when Uwe Boll creates a cinematic masterpiece.
PotBS - I have to say, this one looks to be coming along fairly well. And I think that it's new take on the MMO genre will help it along, it could use some TLC visually, but if the game keeps up with it's content and new direction for MMO's, I could see it bering pretty successful.
Vanguard - So much hype, so much potential. I still think the characters look ugly as sin and devoid of life, but that's beside the point. Vanguard has been on most MMOers lips for what seems like forever now, and I think that's probably going to show a lot of love for it come launch day.
For a lot of MMO's, launch day hype isn't a really good indicator of how successful a game will be, it has to be able to sustain itself as well. Look at DDO, people are leaving that game en masse, though I still can't see why most stayed as long as they have.
I think a lot of the upcoming major releases will will be fairly successful at first, especially with people who are just looking for somethign different to play, or those who want to get into a game before gold farmers and other undesirables destroy it.
That's something else that could probably lend a lot of viability to the next generation of MMO's. Measures taken to protect they're player base from those type of things, true it's always goign to be a problem in player-dictated economies, but I'm sure if the dev's put their heads to it, they could think of something.
One last thing to note is that games like PotBS have a better chance of being successful because they're really trying something new, whereas some of the other games out there are more or less rehashes, or just "Standard MMO Model A with swanky covering of Property B" brushed on the surface.
For an example, take a look at the 6 billion or so Korean "Free To Play!" MMO's out there.
Gods and Hereos will do good, just because it really has the two factors going for it. 1. its graphics are good 2. it's an original idea
Star Trek online will do good but mainly because the same reason SWG did good alot people just fans that do anything that relateds to the movies series.
Lotr same story as Star Trek with the added bonus many Lotr fans are also RPG fans i think Lotr will be HUGE
WAR will be good because its a good mmorpg company with loads of experience and although there never been really original there really good at stealing ideas then improving on it before they release it for themself. Except for the way RvR was done DAoC was an EQ clone but easier. We use to call DAoC "EQ light" in the beginning days.
Pirates of the burning sea has a change but online because there just to little of that type of games around
2moons will do great because it hardcore PvP for free
Currently Playing: Dungeons and Dragons Online.
Sig image Pending
Still in: A couple Betas
I've heard this as well. Tolkien fans, well the more hard-core ones, tend to be pretty intense about anything that attempts to re-create his world in a visual medium, sometimes going over screenshots of well known characters or locales and comparing them with the text.
What Turbine has to do, and I'm not sure they're up to the task anyways, is find the happy median between the Tolkien Fanboys and the gaming public.
I give them credit for making the attempt, but it's an insanely tall order to fill. For one you have a rabid base of "Tolkienites" who will vociferously point out any thing that goes too far against what is written in the books, forgetting that everyone has their own visual interpretation of Middle-Earth.
Then you also have a large percentage of the gaming public who could honestly care less about canon, and jsut want some new world to tromp around in and collect "teh phat lewtz" and "pwn newbz".
On one hand I feel bad for Turbine because I know that the people they have monitoring their official boards and customer service e-mails have got to be taking Maalox and Excedrin like crazy. But ont he other hand I know that part of, if not the main reason, Turbine took up the LotRO liscense is they were expecting it to be a cash-cow based solely on name recognition.