Originally posted by czekoskwigel Originally posted by Xthos 800k, 8 Million....I don't care....All I care about is if I like it when I play it...Numbers mean nothing, and someone else liking it does nothing for me, just as someone not liking it does the same.
I agree, to a point. If I like the game, I want others to like it too, because I want it to be succesful enough to push further growth and expansion. You only need 17% of people overall to like it.
Then the game will push out expansions and updates for many years to come.
800k, that's seriously a lot if that's only NA preorders and only box.
I'd estimated the launch figures to be something like 1.5-2 million in total, but if those are the known figures, then the total figures have to be even higher that that. I think there hasn't been an MMORPG that launched with more than 1 million copies actually sold.
Damn, servers will be crazy at launch, I'm glad I'm not one of the people doing server management and maintenance at the SWTOR launch.
Originally posted by SysOpPsyche
Honestly, IMO that number seems low for Star Wars IP in the biggest consumer country in the world (USA).
? Lord of the Rings is 1 of the biggest IP's too yet they launched with far lower launch figures, and the Star Wars IP didn't provide phenomenally peaking sales for SWG.
When you look at the broader picture of sales figures of AAA MMORPG's, then to me it looks like SWTOR is doing pretty well, its preorder figures for NA boxes alone seems to be already higher than the total launch figures of as good as all former MMORPG's. Personally I found that pretty astounding and (to me) unexpected.
Your forgetting to factor in the growing MMO community numbers especially the jump WoW caused in that as well considering 'Distinctiveness' of IP's. LOTR while probably the best Fantasy IP is still Fantasy in a market filled with Fantasy titles (DDO, WoW, Warhammer, etc.) where as Sci-Fi you have Star Trek and lemme think, actually off the top of my head Battlestar Galactica [browser based and IMO barely a MMO] there are mostly Indie or largely undeveloped/custom IP's that really haven't even been around that long and don't nit-pick {edit: not implying anything Mav just have memory loss/brain damage and not interested in a convo concerning lack of completeness and details - we're all stating opinions based on our perspectives} about the details of what I remember, I'm sure I'm at least a little off and that my list is modest to say the least.
Mostly however, I based that number being low based on the growing population of the MMO community and tendecy for the USA to be the most spendthrift country that I know of [which might not be accurate anymore]. Though, I think Asian sales would probably be much higher (still trying to figure out where and how some of these Asian numbers get calculated - what countries etc.)
Now we can start to see why blizzard didnt put a lot of faith in MoP or resources. The doom that will be SWTOR is upon us. will it suck? who knows. But at this point it's the new AAA from a company that was in the same postiiton blizzard was with warcraft series as is the kotor series being the primary game they built the BW base from.
I predict with 2 months after release SWTOR will murder blizzards grip on north america and force them to up the production rate on project Titan.
Your forgetting to factor in the growing MMO community numbers especially the jump WoW caused in that as well considering 'Distinctiveness' of IP's. LOTR while probably the best Fantasy IP is still Fantasy in a market filled with Fantasy titles (DDO, WoW, Warhammer, etc.) where as Sci-Fi you have Star Trek and lemme think, actually off the top of my head Battlestar Galactica [browser based and IMO barely a MMO] there are mostly Indie or largely undeveloped/custom IP's that really haven't even been around that long and don't nit-pick about the details of what I remember, I'm sure I'm at least a little off and that my list is modest to say the least.
Mostly however, I based that number being low based on the growing population of the MMO community and tendecy for the USA to be the most spendthrift country that I know of [which might not be accurate anymore].
I've seen a lot of people, on these forums also, argue that fantasy sells better than scifi as a theme for MMORPG, so in the line of that reasoning, LotrO should have done a lot better, and also Tabula Rasa if we're talking about a vacuum and craving of MMO gamers for a scifi MMO.
But anyway, this whole arguing about this is moot, since we're dealing with personal expectations here, no physical laws, and ask 10 persons and you'll probably get 10 different expectations as answer.
At the end it's just a simple matter of different criteria and assumptions that we're founding our expectations on, I simply looked at how MMO's, scifi as well as fantasy, have been doing in launch figures the past years.R
Regardless whatever criteria someone might use, if they really manage to have a launch sales figures that are around 2-2.5 million or even higher, then that's quite an achievement in any case, seeing that no MMORPG has had more than a million copies sold at launch.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
I've seen a lot of people, on these forums also, argue that fantasy sells better than scifi as a theme for MMORPG, so in the line of that reasoning, LotrO should have done a lot better, and also Tabula Rasa if we're talking about a vacuum and craving of MMO gamers for a scifi MMO.
But anyway, this whole arguing about this is moot, since we're dealing with personal expectations here, no physical laws, and ask 10 persons and you'll probably get 10 different expectations as answer.
At the end it's just a simple matter of different criteria and assumptions that we're founding our expectations on, I simply looked at how MMO's, scifi as well as fantasy, have been doing in launch figures the past years.R
Regardless whatever criteria someone might use, if they really manage to have a launch sales figures that are around 2-2.5 million or even higher, then that's quite an achievement in any case, seeing that no MMORPG has had more than a million copies sold at launch.
Agreed, in the current market.
I think it'll be an accomplishment if they launch with 1.5 million [roughly ballpark to BF3 & MW3 'games' - ie. MMO's are still competitive in the Game industry] and probably good [financially at least] for the industry since I believe thats the break even point which would encourage investors.
{Though I might be off half a million for unit sales, they did spend 100 million on development right or is that old?}
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
Aion,Lotro,War,Aoc and even WoW never broke 1 million pre-order sales at launch from my understanding, WoW only broke 1 million sales a few months after launch.
The fact of the matter is Sw:tor allready has over 1 million pre-order sales 7 weeks before launch if we are to count digital and Worldwides pre-order sales, with that in mind all Sw:tor needs only 500K subed for this game to be considered a financial success as someone else stated earlier.
With 7 weeks to go I see over 3 million pre-order sales Worldwide so that means 2.5 million people can quit after the first month and this game will still be considered a success, that's 75% of the people quiting lol, if that happens then there is something really,really wrong with Sw:tor, in reality if the game is as good as it claims to be and with 3 million Worldwide launch sales I can see maybe 5-10% quiting after the first month leaving still 2.5 million+ Subed. At this rate there is no way this game can fail financialy even if the game crashes and burns after launch, they allready made a profit from pre-order sales alone.
People actually still buy boxes? That's more shocking to me than anything really.
From what I understand digital downloads make up around 40% of all game sales as of 2010, with that in mind America alone sold over 1 million Sw:tor pre-orders, now factor in the rest of the world and lets say that the numbers are close to American sales, thats 2 million Worldwide pre-order box & digital sales 7 weeks before launch.
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
What it means for TOR is only that it is drawing the interest of gamers. At this point that is exactly what EA and Bioware want, this is just pre-orders for box sales in NA alone. That's $48,178,560 multiplied by 60, now consider a certain amount of these pre-orders are Ce's which run at $150, not to mention digital sales and EU sales. This means an awful lot to Bioware and EA, whether it means anything for players or not. On top of that we have launch sales and beyond, plus sub fees, I'd say that means something to someone...
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
What it means for TOR is only that it is drawing the interest of gamers. At this point that is exactly what EA and Bioware want, this is just pre-orders for box sales in NA alone. That's $48,178,560 multiplied by 60, now consider a certain amount of these pre-orders are Ce's which run at $150, not to mention digital sales and EU sales. This means an awful lot to Bioware and EA, whether it means anything for players or not. On top of that we have launch sales and beyond, plus sub fees, I'd say that means something to someone...
Actually, it means investors will be happy that they get an early return on the investment which will most likely add funding to continued development. Games that do not enough money early lose support from investors who want successful titles, not failures. Don't get me wrong, healthy subscriptions do count, but a lackluster launch often comes out as a game that never fulfills its promise. The only game that has cheated that fate is EVE, but their business model completely changed to make its current success possible.
And for gamers, more money = more content development (especially when said MMO employs half of Hollywood to make voice overs).
I have never seen this many American box pre-orders sales for any game with 7 weeks to go, I usually see those type of numbers start to sky rocket around 3-4 weeks before release not 7 weeks, at this pace Sw:tor will have well over 1.5 million American box pre-orders before launch.
World wide counting box & digital sales should be well over 3 million, your thoughts?
Question: What other games in the past had this those type of pre-order numbers 6-7 weeks before launch?
No MMOs have, thats for sure. I agree that it should be well over 3 million pre-orders, probably closer to 4 million. Pretty much every MMO that I can recall that broke a million took atleast a month or two to hit that mark. Yes, even WoW took around 2 months to hit a million...believe it or not. So to have around 4x that at launch for pre-orders is pretty impressive. Especially when you consider that there will also be a large number of purchases on day one, not just with the pre-orders. Who knows with the "limited launch" they are doing though, may be tricky to find the game after launch for a few weeks.
Not to mention that this is based on US sales alone. I am pretty sure SWTOR will have more people purchase the game (hopefully stay subbed) at launch then WoW has US subs.
That's pretty crazy. NA alone will be well over 1 million by the time launch rolls around. Going to be some sleepless weeks for the server tech guys. Hope Bioware has plenty of ampetamines on hand.
People actually still buy boxes? That's more shocking to me than anything really.
LOL, so when we people order Collectors Editions all the items are suppose to be digital then. =-P
Wildstar (2013) & Elder Scroll Online (2013)
Playing: Diablo 3, WOW, Far Cry 3 & X-Com.
Enjoyed: WOW 5 1/2 yrs, LOTRO 3yrs, GW 1/2yr, DFO 1yr, EVE Online 3yrs, and Huxley (Beta).
Failed to impress: GW2 3months, Tera Online 6 months (best combat system in any MMO I've played) STO 1/4yr, Aion 1/2yr, AoC 1yr, CO, Fallen Earth, DDO, EQ2 1/2yr, WAR 1/2yr, Lineage 2 and FF XI 1/2yr, FF XIV.
I've seen a lot of people, on these forums also, argue that fantasy sells better than scifi as a theme for MMORPG, so in the line of that reasoning, LotrO should have done a lot better, and also Tabula Rasa if we're talking about a vacuum and craving of MMO gamers for a scifi MMO.
But anyway, this whole arguing about this is moot, since we're dealing with personal expectations here, no physical laws, and ask 10 persons and you'll probably get 10 different expectations as answer.
At the end it's just a simple matter of different criteria and assumptions that we're founding our expectations on, I simply looked at how MMO's, scifi as well as fantasy, have been doing in launch figures the past years.R
Regardless whatever criteria someone might use, if they really manage to have a launch sales figures that are around 2-2.5 million or even higher, then that's quite an achievement in any case, seeing that no MMORPG has had more than a million copies sold at launch.
Agreed, in the current market.
I think it'll be an accomplishment if they launch with 1.5 million [roughly ballpark to BF3 & MW3 'games' - ie. MMO's are still competitive in the Game industry] and probably good [financially at least] for the industry since I believe thats the break even point which would encourage investors.
{Though I might be off half a million for unit sales, they did spend 100 million on development right or is that old?}
The last time it was commented on, that 100 million figure was said to be too high. At this rate - box sales alone will pay off their initial investment easily. I do think that 1.5 million is lowballing it, since we have no figures from the big E-tailers or Europe (or Origin - but Bioware stated that Origin was carrying far less stock)
As for other games....WoW only launched with 200 or so K (and that was an ABYSSMAL launch) but grew extremely quickly. AOC launched with 700K (and bottomed out) WAR launched with 800K - and had 1.2 million sales by the end of the first month (and plummeted) so pre-orders definately don't mean anything (how could they, really) But....with the numbers of pre-orders continually climbing, the retention rate Bioware 'needs' keeps dropping.
One also needs to remember they are staggering the launch, and the possible numbers coming from launch in 'red zone' areas is another unknown.
Bioware+Pandemic=$300M invested by Elevation partners to create SW:ToR.
EA buys Bioware/Pandemic for $860M.
'nough said.
So, according to your logic, Rift cost 100 million, since that was what Trion got from their outside investors.
What would make you think that all the money raised went to SWTOR (especially since Bioware will be releasing info on their 'secret' project that is already under development next month)
Bioware+Pandemic=$300M invested by Elevation partners to create SW:ToR.
EA buys Bioware/Pandemic for $860M.
'nough said.
So, according to your logic, Rift cost 100 million, since that was what Trion got from their outside investors.
What would make you think that all the money raised went to SWTOR (especially since Bioware will be releasing info on their 'secret' project that is already under development next month)
Tell me what, any type of "secret" project, even adding all IP's in the mix of Pandemic and Bioware past and future(including SW:Tor)=nearly 1 BILLION DOLLARS?
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
This time is different, swtor is the 1st real AAA MMO. AION was a lie, WAR well all the people in the beta was talking about a unfinished game, ¨need a least one more year¨, and that was just one of the biggest mistakes of EA and Mythic, same with AoC etc etc. This time the Hype come from the people playing the beta, i know people in the beta who had changed his mind about the game, even mmorpg.com
Comments
You only need 17% of people overall to like it.
Then the game will push out expansions and updates for many years to come.
"TO MICHAEL!"
Your forgetting to factor in the growing MMO community numbers especially the jump WoW caused in that as well considering 'Distinctiveness' of IP's. LOTR while probably the best Fantasy IP is still Fantasy in a market filled with Fantasy titles (DDO, WoW, Warhammer, etc.) where as Sci-Fi you have Star Trek and lemme think, actually off the top of my head Battlestar Galactica [browser based and IMO barely a MMO] there are mostly Indie or largely undeveloped/custom IP's that really haven't even been around that long and don't nit-pick {edit: not implying anything Mav just have memory loss/brain damage and not interested in a convo concerning lack of completeness and details - we're all stating opinions based on our perspectives} about the details of what I remember, I'm sure I'm at least a little off and that my list is modest to say the least.
Mostly however, I based that number being low based on the growing population of the MMO community and tendecy for the USA to be the most spendthrift country that I know of [which might not be accurate anymore]. Though, I think Asian sales would probably be much higher (still trying to figure out where and how some of these Asian numbers get calculated - what countries etc.)
Now we can start to see why blizzard didnt put a lot of faith in MoP or resources. The doom that will be SWTOR is upon us. will it suck? who knows. But at this point it's the new AAA from a company that was in the same postiiton blizzard was with warcraft series as is the kotor series being the primary game they built the BW base from.
I predict with 2 months after release SWTOR will murder blizzards grip on north america and force them to up the production rate on project Titan.
Tis intreesting times we live in i say :P
I've seen a lot of people, on these forums also, argue that fantasy sells better than scifi as a theme for MMORPG, so in the line of that reasoning, LotrO should have done a lot better, and also Tabula Rasa if we're talking about a vacuum and craving of MMO gamers for a scifi MMO.
But anyway, this whole arguing about this is moot, since we're dealing with personal expectations here, no physical laws, and ask 10 persons and you'll probably get 10 different expectations as answer.
At the end it's just a simple matter of different criteria and assumptions that we're founding our expectations on, I simply looked at how MMO's, scifi as well as fantasy, have been doing in launch figures the past years.R
Regardless whatever criteria someone might use, if they really manage to have a launch sales figures that are around 2-2.5 million or even higher, then that's quite an achievement in any case, seeing that no MMORPG has had more than a million copies sold at launch.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
This means absolutely nothing. We have had games like Aion, Lotro, WAR and AOC have high preorders and we all know what happened to those mmos. Nothing more than hype in a bowl.
Agreed, in the current market.
I think it'll be an accomplishment if they launch with 1.5 million [roughly ballpark to BF3 & MW3 'games' - ie. MMO's are still competitive in the Game industry] and probably good [financially at least] for the industry since I believe thats the break even point which would encourage investors.
{Though I might be off half a million for unit sales, they did spend 100 million on development right or is that old?}
People actually still buy boxes? That's more shocking to me than anything really.
Aion,Lotro,War,Aoc and even WoW never broke 1 million pre-order sales at launch from my understanding, WoW only broke 1 million sales a few months after launch.
The fact of the matter is Sw:tor allready has over 1 million pre-order sales 7 weeks before launch if we are to count digital and Worldwides pre-order sales, with that in mind all Sw:tor needs only 500K subed for this game to be considered a financial success as someone else stated earlier.
With 7 weeks to go I see over 3 million pre-order sales Worldwide so that means 2.5 million people can quit after the first month and this game will still be considered a success, that's 75% of the people quiting lol, if that happens then there is something really,really wrong with Sw:tor, in reality if the game is as good as it claims to be and with 3 million Worldwide launch sales I can see maybe 5-10% quiting after the first month leaving still 2.5 million+ Subed. At this rate there is no way this game can fail financialy even if the game crashes and burns after launch, they allready made a profit from pre-order sales alone.
From what I understand digital downloads make up around 40% of all game sales as of 2010, with that in mind America alone sold over 1 million Sw:tor pre-orders, now factor in the rest of the world and lets say that the numbers are close to American sales, thats 2 million Worldwide pre-order box & digital sales 7 weeks before launch.
What it means for TOR is only that it is drawing the interest of gamers. At this point that is exactly what EA and Bioware want, this is just pre-orders for box sales in NA alone. That's $48,178,560 multiplied by 60, now consider a certain amount of these pre-orders are Ce's which run at $150, not to mention digital sales and EU sales. This means an awful lot to Bioware and EA, whether it means anything for players or not. On top of that we have launch sales and beyond, plus sub fees, I'd say that means something to someone...
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Actually, it means investors will be happy that they get an early return on the investment which will most likely add funding to continued development. Games that do not enough money early lose support from investors who want successful titles, not failures. Don't get me wrong, healthy subscriptions do count, but a lackluster launch often comes out as a game that never fulfills its promise. The only game that has cheated that fate is EVE, but their business model completely changed to make its current success possible.
And for gamers, more money = more content development (especially when said MMO employs half of Hollywood to make voice overs).
I expect SW:TOR to garner close to 2 million subscribers some time in 2012. I wish I was excited about it myself.
No MMOs have, thats for sure. I agree that it should be well over 3 million pre-orders, probably closer to 4 million. Pretty much every MMO that I can recall that broke a million took atleast a month or two to hit that mark. Yes, even WoW took around 2 months to hit a million...believe it or not. So to have around 4x that at launch for pre-orders is pretty impressive. Especially when you consider that there will also be a large number of purchases on day one, not just with the pre-orders. Who knows with the "limited launch" they are doing though, may be tricky to find the game after launch for a few weeks.
Not to mention that this is based on US sales alone. I am pretty sure SWTOR will have more people purchase the game (hopefully stay subbed) at launch then WoW has US subs.
That's pretty crazy. NA alone will be well over 1 million by the time launch rolls around. Going to be some sleepless weeks for the server tech guys. Hope Bioware has plenty of ampetamines on hand.
LOL, so when we people order Collectors Editions all the items are suppose to be digital then. =-P
Wildstar (2013) & Elder Scroll Online (2013)
Playing: Diablo 3, WOW, Far Cry 3 & X-Com.
Enjoyed: WOW 5 1/2 yrs, LOTRO 3yrs, GW 1/2yr, DFO 1yr, EVE Online 3yrs, and Huxley (Beta).
Failed to impress: GW2 3months, Tera Online 6 months (best combat system in any MMO I've played) STO 1/4yr, Aion 1/2yr, AoC 1yr, CO, Fallen Earth, DDO, EQ2 1/2yr, WAR 1/2yr, Lineage 2 and FF XI 1/2yr, FF XIV.
803k folks...that's almost the number of $'s invested in this game, except, the $'s have an M after the number, ie, 803m(illion).
Good luck with that!..
The last time it was commented on, that 100 million figure was said to be too high. At this rate - box sales alone will pay off their initial investment easily. I do think that 1.5 million is lowballing it, since we have no figures from the big E-tailers or Europe (or Origin - but Bioware stated that Origin was carrying far less stock)
As for other games....WoW only launched with 200 or so K (and that was an ABYSSMAL launch) but grew extremely quickly. AOC launched with 700K (and bottomed out) WAR launched with 800K - and had 1.2 million sales by the end of the first month (and plummeted) so pre-orders definately don't mean anything (how could they, really) But....with the numbers of pre-orders continually climbing, the retention rate Bioware 'needs' keeps dropping.
One also needs to remember they are staggering the launch, and the possible numbers coming from launch in 'red zone' areas is another unknown.
o,O
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
Are you really saying they've spent $800,000,000 developing TOR? Do you realize how insane that is?
Google Elevation Partners, do the research.
Then google Elevation Partners and EA. Read more
Bioware+Pandemic=$300M invested by Elevation partners to create SW:ToR.
EA buys Bioware/Pandemic for $860M.
'nough said.
I don't need to do any research to know it's wrong.
800M spent on a single MMO. It would never happen.
So, according to your logic, Rift cost 100 million, since that was what Trion got from their outside investors.
What would make you think that all the money raised went to SWTOR (especially since Bioware will be releasing info on their 'secret' project that is already under development next month)
Tell me what, any type of "secret" project, even adding all IP's in the mix of Pandemic and Bioware past and future(including SW:Tor)=nearly 1 BILLION DOLLARS?
Me.
This time is different, swtor is the 1st real AAA MMO. AION was a lie, WAR well all the people in the beta was talking about a unfinished game, ¨need a least one more year¨, and that was just one of the biggest mistakes of EA and Mythic, same with AoC etc etc. This time the Hype come from the people playing the beta, i know people in the beta who had changed his mind about the game, even mmorpg.com