Conan? A bad B movie? Your kidding right? Ahhh children today. What's next? I'll have some child tell me Bladerunner is a horribly done film, maybe the Clockwork Orange was fail, or the Original Godfather was poorly made... This generation makes me sad.
Unfortunately you just discribed half the people i know. It's sad really and i've stopped trying to convince them otherwise. I've learned to accept their stupidity.
The only 'official' comment I have heard was from a podcast that said they were ahead of the AoC/WAR numbers, so 700k or there about, and that was a few weeks ago.
One theory, going by sales receipt order numbers from Trion/Steam/D2D seemed to indicate 1M+.
All theory and hearsay, even after launch companies tend to play hard to get with their subscription numbers.
Conan? A bad B movie? Your kidding right? Ahhh children today. What's next? I'll have some child tell me Bladerunner is a horribly done film, maybe the Clockwork Orange was fail, or the Original Godfather was poorly made... This generation makes me sad.
Unfortunately you just discribed half the people i know. It's sad really and i've stopped trying to convince them otherwise. I've learned to accept their stupidity.
LOL. Unfortunately, I sometimes am inclined to aggree with you to a point. What's funny is that based on your collective posts, I have lumped both of you into the same lot. A subcategory of elitist stupidity. Everything you posted seems intended to bully other readers into falling inline with both of your opinion. Nothing stated is factual, but purely normative statements (or mere matters of individual taste). In terms of pure opinion, I thought the clockwork orange was about a bunch of sissies, instead of a statement about society. Bladerunner... seemed more of a cure for insomina, instead of look into our mortality. The Godfather.... most wise guys think its the forerunner to the gary shandling show. Generationally speaking.... try watching or reading something over 10 years old... in most cases its just poor at best. Most people when confronted with hubris, tend to walk the other way leaving the elitist types to sit in a circle where they talk about how everyone else is stupid.
As far as Rifts sales go... I've got a good feeling about them. But its anyones guess how well it will do.
From 600-800k at the start. Word of mouth will make that number jump near 1 million the first month or two. Depending on endgame content we could see a rise up to and exceeding two million. If endgame is shallow crap it will drop to around 500k subs.
Well, everyone is throwing the wild speculation here, so I will throw my 1 planar lure.
The game coust for production was US$ 50 million. (a dev just sliped it recently)
The game is currently "black ink" (same dev sliped it too), just from the copies sold before the launch.
Now, simple math and take note it is not conjecture. (rounded the numbers for make the math easier)
US$ 50,000,000 / US$ 50 = 1,000,000
Like it or not, the game have at least 1 million copies sold. NOW, based at that dev numbers.
And I don't think Rift will have a low retention rate. It is a more finished and polished game than a lot of other MMO at launch. But the retention rates we will see only after the first month, when players start to pay the subscription.
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
So I checked this guys claim and of course he was way off.....it gets updated every hour
Amazon US: 18th and going up
Amazon UK: 35th and going up
So if that was what he found....then its gone up drastically since his post. Or he was just trolling throwing out stats to try and sound right. But don't take my word for it go look for yourself.
ps. that was in the category pc + accessories...so there was some hardware that was ranked higher so 18th is not accurate either its actually higher.
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
Yes since Amazon is the only place you can clearly buy the game. I for one bought it from D2D because of the discount I'm sure others have as well.
A mass market product for a PC game simply stands at ... the top 3 for weeks if not for months on amazon.
And it will be very easy to track the real number of players: just multiply the number of servers with 10K- non concurrent - and you have a number of players/subscribers.
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
So I checked this guys claim and of course he was way off.....it gets updated every hour
Amazon US: 18th and going up
Amazon UK: 35th and going up
So if that was what he found....then its gone up drastically since his post. Or he was just trolling throwing out stats to try and sound right. But don't take my word for it go look for yourself.
ps. that was in the category pc + accessories...so there was some hardware that was ranked higher so 18th is not accurate either its actually higher.
Before calling me a liar : here are the links ...: the normal editions of Rift TODAY stand OUT of the top 50
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
So I checked this guys claim and of course he was way off.....it gets updated every hour
Amazon US: 18th and going up
Amazon UK: 35th and going up
So if that was what he found....then its gone up drastically since his post. Or he was just trolling throwing out stats to try and sound right. But don't take my word for it go look for yourself.
ps. that was in the category pc + accessories...so there was some hardware that was ranked higher so 18th is not accurate either its actually higher.
Before calling me a liar : here are the links ...: the normal editions of Rift TODAY stand OUT of the top 50
Even the CE edition sell LOTS more than the normal edition, which simply means the product is NOT selling as a mass product.
If a few dozen PC games (PC ....) are selling more on amazon than the newest blockbuster: that game ain't a blockbuster.
So did some more digging....the nubers are split there are box sales and digital download sales for each edition so rift will show up 4 times in the top selling lists SE box, SE digital, CE box, CE digital
So moral of the story the numbers don't mean anything you can't see accurately where it is in sales rankings
I don't get it, the game isn't even out yet, what is being calculated here?
Preorders against actual sales of the games that are out there? And what, over a period of a week, a month, beginning of this year how many preorders there have been compared to actual sales?
Hmm, I think the week 1 and week 2 (actual) total sales figures will be more accurate and interesting (I'm only aware of the vgcharts site that shows them, if people have other handy sites that collects and shows that kind of figures, I'll be glad to receive links of them, PM is ok too)
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I don't get it, the game isn't even out yet, what is being calculated here?
Preorders against actual sales of the games that are out there? And what, over a period of a week, a month, beginning of this year how many preorders there have been compared to actual sales?
Hmm, I think the week 1 and week 2 (actual) total sales figures will be more accurate and interesting (I'm only aware of the vgcharts site that shows them, if people have other handy sites that collects and shows that kind of figures, I'll be glad to receive links of them, PM is ok too)
I think this thread is more about the success, or lack thereof, that everyone feels the game will have.
A lot of people really care for this game to fail.
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
Yes since Amazon is the only place you can clearly buy the game. I for one bought it from D2D because of the discount I'm sure others have as well.
A mass market product for a PC game simply stands at ... the top 3 for weeks if not for months on amazon.
And it will be very easy to track the real number of players: just multiply the number of servers with 10K- non concurrent - and you have a number of players/subscribers.
So you monitor every game that sells on Amazon and determine if it's a blockbuster hit or not if it hits the top 3? lol
Show me where it says Amazon holds all the answers to PC Game sales and then maybe I'll believe you.
I don't get it, the game isn't even out yet, what is being calculated here?
Preorders against actual sales of the games that are out there? And what, over a period of a week, a month, beginning of this year how many preorders there have been compared to actual sales?
Hmm, I think the week 1 and week 2 (actual) total sales figures will be more accurate and interesting (I'm only aware of the vgcharts site that shows them, if people have other handy sites that collects and shows that kind of figures, I'll be glad to receive links of them, PM is ok too)
If you talk about the numbers seen here in this thread, you need a game that tops the amazon charts weeks if not months in advance.
It is that simple. To the guy who accused me of lying, I would reply that the normal editions of Rift show up on 61 and somewhere around 70 in the UK.
There are no seperate download Rift numbers on Amazon: only CE editions and normal editions.
People are inventing things out of their thin hats, while the pre order data on Amazon simply show the records of AOC and WAR will not be broken. AOC had 750K, WAR had 800K over the first 5 or 6 weeks. Aion had 600K and even that game stood in the top 5 of Amazon for a few weeks.
And like I said it will be very easy to track the number of players by counting the servers after launch.
Someone asked the estimates: these are my estimates based on former MMORPG sales and showing the Amazon pre orders.
Well we can all have a guess, I would say around 800k at launch. The advertising on Syfy will help tremendously, even my partner said it looked intesting, and she has not been into MMOs for ages.
Xfire stats inc, I know they only represent a very small number of people, but they give some proportionate added info.
Rift has hit 9th place, with around 10k active players....And if you take the current No1, Wow obviously, it sits at 40k players......So not bad I think. We need to take into effect that yes its currently free, so tough to know.
AOC and Warhammer sit around 200-300.
Maybe some others know more about Xfire to dig up some interesting stuff.
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
And for those not believing my Amazon trend watch from above...
From the last count I saw there are now 46 servers world wide reserved for Rift (both US/EU).
MMO vets will know that this means they plan to have 450K players on launch. As each server represents around 10K non concurrent players (3K concurrent).
It is a confirmation of what I had in mind and it fits the bill with earlier launches of War (800k- 113 servers), AoC (750k - 67 servers) and Aion (600k) (in that order).
It also means that those ridiculous numbers of "millions" are simply trolling as the game would need at least 100 more servers to deliver the goods.
Comments
Unfortunately you just discribed half the people i know. It's sad really and i've stopped trying to convince them otherwise. I've learned to accept their stupidity.
The only 'official' comment I have heard was from a podcast that said they were ahead of the AoC/WAR numbers, so 700k or there about, and that was a few weeks ago.
One theory, going by sales receipt order numbers from Trion/Steam/D2D seemed to indicate 1M+.
All theory and hearsay, even after launch companies tend to play hard to get with their subscription numbers.
This games sale figures..WHICH IS WHAT THIS THREAD IS ABOUT... imo will top out at 200k and in 6 months time be around 50k.
While you can never be 100% certain, we all know the sales are most likely going to be way above 200k.
LOL. Unfortunately, I sometimes am inclined to aggree with you to a point. What's funny is that based on your collective posts, I have lumped both of you into the same lot. A subcategory of elitist stupidity. Everything you posted seems intended to bully other readers into falling inline with both of your opinion. Nothing stated is factual, but purely normative statements (or mere matters of individual taste). In terms of pure opinion, I thought the clockwork orange was about a bunch of sissies, instead of a statement about society. Bladerunner... seemed more of a cure for insomina, instead of look into our mortality. The Godfather.... most wise guys think its the forerunner to the gary shandling show. Generationally speaking.... try watching or reading something over 10 years old... in most cases its just poor at best. Most people when confronted with hubris, tend to walk the other way leaving the elitist types to sit in a circle where they talk about how everyone else is stupid.
As far as Rifts sales go... I've got a good feeling about them. But its anyones guess how well it will do.
I'm with you.
Well, everyone is throwing the wild speculation here, so I will throw my 1 planar lure.
The game coust for production was US$ 50 million. (a dev just sliped it recently)
The game is currently "black ink" (same dev sliped it too), just from the copies sold before the launch.
Now, simple math and take note it is not conjecture. (rounded the numbers for make the math easier)
US$ 50,000,000 / US$ 50 = 1,000,000
Like it or not, the game have at least 1 million copies sold. NOW, based at that dev numbers.
And I don't think Rift will have a low retention rate. It is a more finished and polished game than a lot of other MMO at launch. But the retention rates we will see only after the first month, when players start to pay the subscription.
Sales Estimate?
LOTS.
More than a one million in the first 30 days but less than three million.
Probably still close to a million or more playing in six months.
That's quite a successful outcome.
Two subs in this household alone. My wife seems to love it.
.. But in a good way.
Amazon US: PC games: not even in the top 30 for the normal edition.
Amazon UK: PC games: not even in the top 50 for the normal edtition.
Both AOC and WAR stood weeks at number one or two.
So those millions you fans dream about: NOW we will see how SMALL the community of mmorpg.com really is.
BTW: DC On line stands at number on in the US...
Yes since Amazon is the only place you can clearly buy the game. I for one bought it from D2D because of the discount I'm sure others have as well.
So I checked this guys claim and of course he was way off.....it gets updated every hour
Amazon US: 18th and going up
Amazon UK: 35th and going up
So if that was what he found....then its gone up drastically since his post. Or he was just trolling throwing out stats to try and sound right. But don't take my word for it go look for yourself.
ps. that was in the category pc + accessories...so there was some hardware that was ranked higher so 18th is not accurate either its actually higher.
A mass market product for a PC game simply stands at ... the top 3 for weeks if not for months on amazon.
And it will be very easy to track the real number of players: just multiply the number of servers with 10K- non concurrent - and you have a number of players/subscribers.
Before calling me a liar : here are the links ...: the normal editions of Rift TODAY stand OUT of the top 50
http://www.amazon.com/gp/search/ref=sr_nr_n_4?rh=n%3A468642%2Cn%3A%2111846801%2Cn%3A229575&bbn=11846801&ie=UTF8&qid=1297720919&rnid=11846801
http://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dvideogames&field-keywords=&x=11&y=24#/ref=sr_nr_p_n_feature_browse-b_3?rh=n%3A300703%2Cp_n_feature_browse-bin%3A671468011&bbn=300703&ie=UTF8&qid=1297720968&rnid=671465011
Even the CE edition sell LOTS more than the normal edition, which simply means the product is NOT selling as a mass product.
If a few dozen PC games (PC ....) are selling more on amazon than the newest blockbuster: that game ain't a blockbuster.
So did some more digging....the nubers are split there are box sales and digital download sales for each edition so rift will show up 4 times in the top selling lists SE box, SE digital, CE box, CE digital
So moral of the story the numbers don't mean anything you can't see accurately where it is in sales rankings
I don't get it, the game isn't even out yet, what is being calculated here?
Preorders against actual sales of the games that are out there? And what, over a period of a week, a month, beginning of this year how many preorders there have been compared to actual sales?
Hmm, I think the week 1 and week 2 (actual) total sales figures will be more accurate and interesting (I'm only aware of the vgcharts site that shows them, if people have other handy sites that collects and shows that kind of figures, I'll be glad to receive links of them, PM is ok too)
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think this thread is more about the success, or lack thereof, that everyone feels the game will have.
A lot of people really care for this game to fail.
.. But in a good way.
There seem to be a huge interest for Rift so I think it will sell about 1mill copyes in the first 4 month or so.
So you monitor every game that sells on Amazon and determine if it's a blockbuster hit or not if it hits the top 3? lol
Show me where it says Amazon holds all the answers to PC Game sales and then maybe I'll believe you.
If you talk about the numbers seen here in this thread, you need a game that tops the amazon charts weeks if not months in advance.
It is that simple. To the guy who accused me of lying, I would reply that the normal editions of Rift show up on 61 and somewhere around 70 in the UK.
There are no seperate download Rift numbers on Amazon: only CE editions and normal editions.
People are inventing things out of their thin hats, while the pre order data on Amazon simply show the records of AOC and WAR will not be broken. AOC had 750K, WAR had 800K over the first 5 or 6 weeks. Aion had 600K and even that game stood in the top 5 of Amazon for a few weeks.
And like I said it will be very easy to track the number of players by counting the servers after launch.
Someone asked the estimates: these are my estimates based on former MMORPG sales and showing the Amazon pre orders.
I agree, a lot of the preorders may not ever turn into actual sales.
Well we can all have a guess, I would say around 800k at launch. The advertising on Syfy will help tremendously, even my partner said it looked intesting, and she has not been into MMOs for ages.
Xfire stats inc, I know they only represent a very small number of people, but they give some proportionate added info.
Rift has hit 9th place, with around 10k active players....And if you take the current No1, Wow obviously, it sits at 40k players......So not bad I think. We need to take into effect that yes its currently free, so tough to know.
AOC and Warhammer sit around 200-300.
Maybe some others know more about Xfire to dig up some interesting stuff.
Core i5 13600KF, BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard
And for those not believing my Amazon trend watch from above...
From the last count I saw there are now 46 servers world wide reserved for Rift (both US/EU).
MMO vets will know that this means they plan to have 450K players on launch. As each server represents around 10K non concurrent players (3K concurrent).
It is a confirmation of what I had in mind and it fits the bill with earlier launches of War (800k- 113 servers), AoC (750k - 67 servers) and Aion (600k) (in that order).
It also means that those ridiculous numbers of "millions" are simply trolling as the game would need at least 100 more servers to deliver the goods.