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Sales Estimate?

145791014

Comments

  • Professor78Professor78 Member UncommonPosts: 611

    Are they not using totaly new server setups - architecture for the game, and this is why its called "Next Gen" as it has the ability to do things others current can't. Google it a bit.

    So we don't know what the servers can hold.

    But they have said that they are more than ready for multiple hundreds and thousands ready to populate.

    Core i5 13600KF,  BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard


  • mgporkmgpork Member Posts: 9

    Why do people care so much about "sales" speculation? There are so m any haters on this game, and the only reason they hate is for fun. I think that people that like the gaeme, will buy the game. People that don't like the game, will play something they do like. Everyone has different views of games and what not, some people may like it and others won't.

     

    People need to relax with all this "clone" shinanigans, MMORPGs are a genre like any other genre, look at call of duty and battlefield, they both shoot guns in them, does that mean they're "clones"? Honestly people, come on..

     

    I do not plan to, or play rift.

     

    <3

  • TwystedWizTwystedWiz Member UncommonPosts: 175

    Originally posted by pragues

    And for those not believing my Amazon trend watch from above...

    From the last count I saw there are now 46 servers world wide reserved for Rift (both US/EU).

    MMO vets will know that this means they plan to have 450K players on launch. As each server represents around 10K non concurrent players (3K concurrent).

    It is a confirmation of what I had in mind and it fits the bill with earlier launches of War (800k- 113 servers), AoC (750k - 67 servers) and Aion (600k) (in that order).

    It also means that those ridiculous numbers of "millions" are simply trolling as the game would need at least 100 more servers to deliver the goods.

     

    Because whatever number of servers is showing up now is all there can EVER be!

  • mgporkmgpork Member Posts: 9

    Originally posted by TwystedWiz

    Originally posted by pragues

    And for those not believing my Amazon trend watch from above...

    From the last count I saw there are now 46 servers world wide reserved for Rift (both US/EU).

    MMO vets will know that this means they plan to have 450K players on launch. As each server represents around 10K non concurrent players (3K concurrent).

    It is a confirmation of what I had in mind and it fits the bill with earlier launches of War (800k- 113 servers), AoC (750k - 67 servers) and Aion (600k) (in that order).

    It also means that those ridiculous numbers of "millions" are simply trolling as the game would need at least 100 more servers to deliver the goods.

     

    Because whatever number of servers is showing up now is all there can EVER be!

    Also didn't they state that servers held 25k players?

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    The amazon pre sales are clear, the 46 servers installed match those pre sales figures which are below War and AoC pre order views of 2 years ago.

    And here comes the usual talk of "our servers hold far more than all those others " . It is always the same story with every new launch. 10K non concurrent players for each server of which most hold on to 3-4K in concurrent form.

    46 servers means around 450K players (non concurrent) it is that simple.

    Servers for all succesful MMO's are renewed on a regular basis. Please stop the next generation nonsense about SQL server stats.

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by mgpork

    Why do people care so much about "sales" speculation? There are so m any haters on this game, and the only reason they hate is for fun. I think that people that like the gaeme, will buy the game. People that don't like the game, will play something they do like. Everyone has different views of games and what not, some people may like it and others won't.

     

    People need to relax with all this "clone" shinanigans, MMORPGs are a genre like any other genre, look at call of duty and battlefield, they both shoot guns in them, does that mean they're "clones"? Honestly people, come on..

    You sound far too reasonable, now stop this immediately, this is a thread for ridiculing/bashing or defending Rift, no sensible 'taking the middle ground' talk.

    image

     

    On a serious note, we'll find out in March who was more right or not (people love to be right image), it could be fun to revisit this thread again then.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • marquisk2marquisk2 Member Posts: 141

    Originally posted by MMO.Maverick

    Originally posted by mgpork

    Why do people care so much about "sales" speculation? There are so m any haters on this game, and the only reason they hate is for fun. I think that people that like the gaeme, will buy the game. People that don't like the game, will play something they do like. Everyone has different views of games and what not, some people may like it and others won't.

     

    People need to relax with all this "clone" shinanigans, MMORPGs are a genre like any other genre, look at call of duty and battlefield, they both shoot guns in them, does that mean they're "clones"? Honestly people, come on..

    You sound far too reasonable, now stop this immediately, this is a thread for ridiculing/bashing or defending Rift, no sensible 'taking the middle ground' talk.

    image

     

    On a serious note, we'll find out in March who was more right or not (people love to be right image), it could be fun to revisit this thread again then.

      lol.  Yup wait until Amazon.. err Trion gives a report about sales.

  • EvilGeekEvilGeek Member UncommonPosts: 1,258

    The only thing that matters is that for the people that enjoy the game it does well enough to survive and grow. For the haters out there, why do you even care? I don't get what makes people want games to fail? You're all just mean spirited and should go get counseling to see what the real issue is :)

    image
  • adam_noxadam_nox Member UncommonPosts: 2,148

    bliz saw the population entropy happening on their servers, that's why all their stuff is cross server or single player now (or with a guild). 

    I wish devs would continue to work on the single-realm model, like in champions online.  That game is awful, but it at least showed it could be done, without turning the game into a lobby multiplayer like guild wars.

     

    to address the topic, based on buzz alone I'd say a million the first month.

  • jpnolejpnole Member UncommonPosts: 1,698

    3 million and counting......

  • jpnolejpnole Member UncommonPosts: 1,698

    As of this moment:

    CE - digital d/l (what most will order - myself included)


     


    reg d/l


     


    Ignore the box stats, people don't buy too much of them anymore.


  • PuremallacePuremallace Member Posts: 1,856

    Originally posted by Torgrim

    I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.

    This totally neglects the reason why those servers were empty 3-6 months down the line.

  • TurdinatorTurdinator Member Posts: 210

    I read somewhere that they set a record for pre-orders.

  • wimileswimiles Member UncommonPosts: 10

    I COMPLETELY hope you are right about 3 million.  Just out of curiosity, is this number just a guess, or do you have any facts to back it up?

  • wimileswimiles Member UncommonPosts: 10

    Originally posted by jpnole

    3 million and counting......

    ^   ^   ^   ^   ^

     

    I can only hope!!!

  • Z3R01Z3R01 Member UncommonPosts: 2,426
    25k x 46 servers = 1.15 million possible players and they have the ability to double their server capacity.

    Playing: Nothing

    Looking forward to: Nothing 


  • LeucentLeucent Member Posts: 2,371

    Sales mean nothing, retaining them does.

  • SorrowSorrow Member Posts: 1,195

    Originally posted by Professor78

    Are they not using totaly new server setups - architecture for the game, and this is why its called "Next Gen" as it has the ability to do things others current can't. Google it a bit.

    So we don't know what the servers can hold.

    But they have said that they are more than ready for multiple hundreds and thousands ready to populate.

    One thing I do know about the servers that seem to be unknown or at least not discussed is they have dynamic layers like LOTRO and a few other games.

    TRION doesnt talk about it, and there is no manual way to change layers but there are layers in game ( tested ), group with a friend sometimes and the game kinda reloads real fast for one of you as it pulls you to the dynamic layer your friend is on,

    I did confirm this standing on the same spot as my hubby in game he was fighting a rift I neither saw, nor took part in. Soon as I joined him Im in the middle of a Rift fight.

    image

  • Z3R01Z3R01 Member UncommonPosts: 2,426
    Originally posted by Leucent

    Sales mean nothing, retaining them does.

     

    Obviously.

    Playing: Nothing

    Looking forward to: Nothing 


  • mastersomratmastersomrat Member UncommonPosts: 373

    Sales mean nothing, retaining them does.  What?  If you don't have sales, retaining actually means nothing (anything x zero is still zero).

  • LeucentLeucent Member Posts: 2,371

    Originally posted by mastersomrat

    Sales mean nothing, retaining them does.  What?  If you don't have sales, retaining actually means nothing (anything x zero is still zero).

     Such a simple concept flew right over your head.

  • OkhamsRazorOkhamsRazor Member Posts: 1,047

    Its very hard to tell . I heard rumours Rift surpassed 1 million preorders about six weeks ago . How many of these could be people that decided to order the game to get into the beta then cancelled is hard to tell . But then you have to factor in Trion have given out huge amounts of beta keys . On top of that theres this weeks beta which will bring even more people on board . Generally speaking in game apart from one or two worried WoW fans its mostly been possative comments about the game . I think I will go for a very conservative estimate of 1.5 million with a retention of 750 thousand  but thats a very conservative estimate my gut instinct says it could 2-3 million and an upwardly spiraling number of subs . Quite frankly its the most poilshed ,most fun mmo  to be released since WoW .

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    The average concurrent number of users in single realm based MMO''s these days is 3 - 4K.

    That's simply the limit of present day SQL server and MMO technology. Over that the server becomes cramped and overloaded with data: which results in lag.

    That means non concurrent on launch, a full server has around 10_12K maximum capacity, simply because 30% of people are on line at once. The launching hours always has some queuing because the majority wants to log in.

    On average and daily like each server holds up to 10K players - non concurrently.

    Since Rift has 46 servers at the moment they can serve up to 450 K people, of which 30% (150 k)  are on line at any given time.

    You may add or deduct a few % here and there: but that's the potential.

    We'll look at server numbers within a few weeks at launch.

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    These numbers are probably off for two reasons. No idea if they are higher or lower.

    In beta events people are usually a lot more active than when playing their normal MMOs. Especially in betas that are limited in days. So, given that, the number of players should be a lot less than what you describe.

    On the other hand, betas lose people constantly. It's the people that go, take a loot and disappear. So the numbers can be a lot more than what you describe.

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    A Gazillion Billion copies at launch.

    Then it will slowly span out our known universe upping the subscription numbers to megalomanical proportions.

    After that I forsee a decline in subscribers coinciding with the big shrink of the universe.

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