Home › Game Forums › Rift
Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Sales Estimate?
What I have managed to scavange.. before they took down the tracker Trion had sold 100k copies
Friend at IGN is saying D2D is showing 70k+ but dont know if thats just US or US/EU combined
Anyone else got any intel?
I know amazon sold out of the CE's at one point but are now showing avaliable. No idea what that means though.
Comments
Someone said at one point in this forum that Amazon sold 300,000 copies so far. I don't believe the numbers.
If Rift sells 500k + copies at launch, I'd be surprised.
I think 200k - 300k is more likely, but who knows. MMO community is hard to guage in recent years with good reason. A lot of stinkers came out lately and no one seems to be on the same page for what they actually want in a game.
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
If it's not broken, you are not innovating.
If it sells 500k I'll be surprised. {Mod Edit - stay on topic, please} Let the zealous fans defend it all they want...it is what it is and in 6 months or even less it be lucky to retain 50k to 75k players if that.
I think it will easily sell 500k.
It's retaining those players that's the issue.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Sigh I guess I should have expected the negative nancys to jump this thread too. I swear you its getting so you can't post any thoughts or ideas without the nasties showing up trying to hijack it.
The question was about sales estimates, not your personal opinion of where the game is going or where it will be..
{Mod Edit}
It shouldn't be a problem to reach 500,000 copies. I think there will be a small drop in the number of players... but we'll see they already got some more content patches planned ahead within the first months.
I think 50k to 70k is abit high for the 6 month period. The game really has no long term holding power. It's looking like you can go from 1 to level cap in about a week / two weeks.
I haven't heard anything about long term plans for the game or anything in that area. So far it seems like they are putting there money on the rift invasions holding people around. Sadly they have a rude awaking if they think that is going to hold people past the first month. I myself would like to be proven wrong. But i smell a Warhammer Online happening all over ageain. But that seems to be the norm. Companies want to play it safe and just attempt to refine and polish what is out there. The market is quickly coming to the point where the tried and true same old same old isnt going to work anymore.
{Mod Edit }
Trion is marketing Rift well. Websites, magazines, even TV commercials.
The pretty much "open" betas they've been having + the actual open beta next week coupled with a high level of polish and generally positive feedback...
I'd estimate their sales numbers to be good, yet not extreme or over-blown like we've seen with other recent releases.
I truly hope it starts out smallish and builds over time as the positive feedback continues to propegate the interwebs.
Staying power is another matter entirely. That all depends on end-game, which we won't see till after release. This does have me worried, as Trion is only giving the open-beta a cap of 42 but hopefully their promises of "saving the best for release" is more then just blowing smoke up our collective a$$.
I don t really see trolling. The question was Sales estimate, she descriptively told her thoughts. I too think 50k-75k would be a good bet in time.
A reminder to please stay on the thread topic, which is neither other posters nor detailed personal opinions on the game (there are many open threads for that purpose already).
To give feedback on moderation, contact mikeb@mmorpg.com
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
Sigh : ((( sorry really did not mean to start another bloody flame war so sick of this crap.
My estimate would be 500K copies sold in the first year retaining 250-300K subs. The hardcore's will leave fairly quickly as I don't think the game will suit them. The casuals looking for WoW with better grpahics or WAR with better PvE content will stick it out. It all depends on how Trion develop the game.
SWTOR launch may also have an impact but we'll have to wait and see. Not sure how much of an impact GW2 will have, I suspect they cater for different crowds but I'm not sure.
This is why you are better off having this discussion with friends instead of open forums.
There are no hard factual numbers to make an aducated guess. Whatever number we come up with is going to be pure guesswork based on previous released MMOs past 2 years.
Now this is a better estimate, though I believe you go a little too far in the fan-boi direction.
Still, if they have actually sold 1,200,000 copies world wide, even if only half of them stick around after 3,6,9 months 600,000 subscribers would put this game in top 5 US/EU.
1.2 million copies pre ordered? I highly doubt that. If you re right I m sure alot have cancelled. I know many personally that have. As well, many pre orders are counted by dropping $5 at EB Games or other stored just to try it out. Many people just cancel it and put it towards something else in the store.
Hard to refute less-then-credible estimates from one poster with your own less-then-credible statements :0) - clown smile!
I will litter the forums with my less than credible estimates. 50 pre-orders is my most accurate estimate.
Simply stating I doubt it, but if I m wrong (In otherwords prove me wrong with proof) then I gave reasons to why it would be wrong, no one can tel me all pre orders on a game are kept, I know I m 1 that did this $5 thing and have cancelled.
People don't stay in touch with reality. Starcraft II, 700k sales in the U.S. Rift is a U.S. game with a few fans in Europe.
You are saying Rift has sold more right now, than Starcraft II did in the US when it was retail.
Come back to Earth please.
MMOs are a lot more mainstream these days than RTS games
"You're not in Azeroth anymore" And it doesn't sound like they're in the real world either.
SC2 may have sold only 700k in the US, but Cataclysm sold millions.
The market for MMO games is arguably bigger then the market for strategy/RTS games.
Gamasutra said SC2 sold 1.5 million copies in the US and Europe in 48 hours.
It is not hard to believe that a well marketed and well hyped game such as Rift could sell 1.5 million + boxes within the first couple of days.
AoC had something worth selling, even if it was broke. Rift won't have the same "something new" appeal. It'll sell a couple hundred thousand and then drift down in the mediocre population range in a couple months.
I need to ask why this fixation on box sales mind you? or even subs on it? all it matter is not you be playing and have enough people to make the world full enough to amke things fun.