We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
I don't know that we can really presume what will or will not happen after launch, but I would suspect that this estimate of 1.2 mil is likely close to the truth. Rift CE plus Standard are, combined, outselling Cataclism on Amazon. Rift CE is slaughtering DCUO in terms of PC sales at Amazon. For a game to be selling that well through an online retailer when it hasn't even been released - meaning you'd expect more sales are going directly through the game site - is pretty unreal, especially since DCUO was a big title and was just released a few weeks ago. Considering how well it is selling at Amazon, how I see RIFT banner ads on just about every website I visit - gaming or otherwise, how Trion stated they were hoping for AoC or WAR numbers upon release and have recently stated that they are selling better than they had expected, 1.2 mil seems like a very reasonable estimate.
edit: Let me restate: 1.2 mil seems like it is a reasonable estimate for what they will sell upon release, not necessarily right this very moment.
I was pleasantly surprised when I went from Apprentice to full 5 star Elite in under 2 months. I was pleasantly surprised again when I went from Elite to just barely Hardcore in 2 weeks. Apprentice, here I come!
Originally posted by heerobya Originally posted by bastionix People don't stay in touch with reality. Starcraft II, 700k sales in the U.S. Rift is a U.S. game with a few fans in Europe. You are saying Rift has sold more right now, than Starcraft II did in the US when it was retail. Come back to Earth please.
SC2 may have sold only 700k in the US, but Cataclysm sold millions. The market for MMO games is arguably bigger then the market for strategy/RTS games.
Gamasutra said SC2 sold 1.5 million copies in the US and Europe in 48 hours. It is not hard to believe that a well marketed and well hyped game such as Rift could sell 1.5 million + boxes within the first couple of days.
There are no public sales figures for Rift right now. Anything you hear is going to be "from a friend" kind of thing. I would think the sales figures will exceed a million, but that's just based on the people I work with who are going to buy it. Out of 10 people who are currently playing WoW, 5 of them are buying Rift. A million doesn't seem unreasonable.
The only thing I know for sure is the number will be more than 80,000, since right now, roughly 80,000 people are in the beta and I would expect more people to actually order than are in the betas.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
AoC had something worth selling, even if it was broke. Rift won't have the same "something new" appeal. It'll sell a couple hundred thousand and then drift down in the mediocre population range in a couple months.
That right there is the key statement.
Rift, as far as the beta has thus-far proven, is a game that is not broken.
It does indeed have the same "something new" appeal, maybe not from a mechanics standpoints like AoC's combat system, but new does not mean better in the MMO genre.
Polish goes a long way... it's hard to believe because most, if not every recent release has had a decidedly massive LACK of polish.
SC2 may have sold only 700k in the US, but Cataclysm sold millions.
The market for MMO games is arguably bigger then the market for strategy/RTS games.
Gamasutra said SC2 sold 1.5 million copies in the US and Europe in 48 hours.
It is not hard to believe that a well marketed and well hyped game such as Rift could sell 1.5 million + boxes within the first couple of days.
Blizzard has 2 games in the top 4 of best selling PC games of all time. SC and WoW, The Sims is first.
I think people who say Trion is in the same league have lost touch with reality. You need a big name and company behind it to sell a game that many times and you need international sales. Rift launches in the U.S. and part of Europe only.
I think 200.000 sales if they do well is good for a brand new company. It won't be much more.
Rift CE is still #1 best selling "Coming Soon" for PC video games above even the new Sims, Dragon Age 2, etc. and Rift standard is like #4.
What does that mean? Not sure.. but combine that with sales from Trion themselves, sales through places like Game Stop, Best Buy etc. and I don't think it's fair to laugh in the face of such "evidence" (be that as it may) that this game will sell well.
Initially.
Staying power could be another story, but no one here is capable of accurately predicting that.
*edit*
Rift is also #2 and #3 on Best Buys upcoming pre-orders list.
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
AoC had something worth selling, even if it was broke. Rift won't have the same "something new" appeal. It'll sell a couple hundred thousand and then drift down in the mediocre population range in a couple months.
That right there is the key statement.
Rift, as far as the beta has thus-far proven, is a game that is not broken.
It does indeed have the same "something new" appeal, maybe not from a mechanics standpoints like AoC's combat system, but new does not mean better in the MMO genre.
Polish goes a long way... it's hard to believe because most, if not every recent release has had a decidedly massive LACK of polish.
Yes I agree that Rift is very polished for being in beta and I am surprised about that really good job on Trion side.
But the the only thing new is the rifts and the invations and those two was cool features when I first entered beta 1 but now after beta 6 even back in beta 3 the novelty wore off for me and what we have left is boring quests mediocre crafting system
If people like Rift good show then and happy gaming but this is 2011 and it is time to put some real working hours into a game and not mass produce themepark MMO with the same formula.
The question isn't really: "Will Rift outsell World of Warcraft?" because the answer there is going to be 'No.'
The real question is: Will Rift make money?
And I think it's safe to guess the answer to that is: Yes. It was developed by a small studio, presumably cost less money to make than WoW (which was an insanely expensive game) and might only need 50k-200k subscribers to keep everyone at Trion employed.
Do you treat music the same way you treat videogames? If an album doesn't go platinum, it must suck, right?
We all want our favorite games to be successful, but you can't measure every game against WoW, which is an anomaly anyway for MMO's.
Rift is well-made and I think it is targeting the right kind of player... People who enjoyed the core mechanics of World of Warcraft, or Everquest 2, or LOTRO, but who are burnt out and ready for something new. I think Rift has done that perfectly, if I'm any sort of evidence - I love LOTRO still, but after two maxed-out characters I'm pretty bored with it. After I played Beta 6 of Rift I preordered.
Aion sold on its release on west almost 1 milion copies, having played Aion for 1y, Rift is imo better game for western audience so I dont see reason why Rift shouldnt go over 500k easy.
Another things how many ppl will stay after SWTOR and GW2 release.
I think these people with the lowball numbers are going to be in for a surprise. While the game has it's flaws, the core of it is solid and can be adjusted.
I think these people with the lowball numbers are going to be in for a surprise. While the game has it's flaws, the core of it is solid and can be adjusted.
This. Atleast RIFT has a game to sell, people will get what they pay for and not get a long list of "Coming Soon" features a la WAR & AoC.
The RIFT Beta has been very open in the fact that if you want to play it, all you have to do is about a five second search for a VIP key. Most have already played it and passed judgement and so I imagine the retention rate will be higher because the people that didn't like it most likely jumped shipped already.
I would say Rift will do the AoC style, sell massive amount of boxes then 3 months down the road the servers are half emty 6 months later server merges and another 6 months it's on life support.
Might be the case, unless they're ahead of the current trend of MMO's and have some additional content on the pipeline, ready to be pushed into the retail
10 and 20 man raids are already in place at release for end game.
10 man raids will not be in for launch, as they stated in a podcast and 20 man raids, I think only 1 will be in at launch (at least, if the official forums are to be trusted), as well as raid rifts.
That said, my prediction: 300k-1.5m
300k in the "worst" case, I do think it will sell 500k+ copies though. I do think over 1m sold preorders is very much possible; Rift is polished, fun and word of the mouth goes a long way.
10 and 20 man raids are already in place at release for end game.
10 man raids will not be in for launch, as they stated in a podcast and 20 man raids, I think only 1 will be in at launch (at least, if the official forums are to be trusted), as well as raid rifts.
That said, my prediction: 300k-1.5m
300k in the "worst" case, I do think it will sell 500k+ copies though. I do think over 1m sold preorders is very much possible; Rift is polished, fun and word of the mouth goes a long way.
You should've paid more attention to the podcast, they removed 10 man raids and "remade" them into 10 man and 20 man dungeons, instead of raids.
You should've paid more attention to the podcast, they removed 10 man raids and "remade" them into 10 man and 20 man dungeons, instead of raids.
"In our original design we also preferred to have both available. But at least for now we are moving all instanced Raids to be tuned for 20-players. We may add the 10-man versions back in post-launch but I'm not making any promises. This is has not been a quick decision. We have been discussing this option for awhile. Below is the "short version" of some of the main reasons we changed our design.
1. We're providing significantly more raid content then we originally scoped. This has allowed us to provide parties of both sizes content that is uniquely tailored to them.
2. We took a close look at the feedback and questions we received from our player-base AND took a very close look at "other-game(s)" that provided content with multiple raid sizes. Our general consensus is that there can be significant negative effects on the players and guilds as they try to both maximize their gear acquisition and straddle the two different raid-sizes.
3. Making this change streamlines our design process. There is a significant time investment in trying to balance difficulty and rewards to the two raid sizes. What we didn't want was there to be an "easier path" to progression. We knew this ahead of time and were prepared for it. But now this frees up our resources to provide a higher-quality experience and more content overall... or as I like call it "MoreBetter".
For those of you in smaller guilds we totally understand your concerns. We have several designers on the instance team that play in 10-man guilds. But we do hope that you can participate in the 20-man content either by joining forces with another small guild or perhaps growing the size of your own. Even if you don't there will still be a lot of 10-man content to enjoy throughout Rift."
I think it will sell around 800k for initial sales. It would do well to retain 300k-400k subscribers after 6 months (not because it is a bad game but because that is what history has shown us other than the 800 lb gorrilla). It doesn't quite have the appeal that Age of Conan and Warhammer had but the equalizer is that it is releasing at a very opportune time.
We are now in the home stretch. My estimate based on some old data combined with projections and forcasting....and a crystal ball of course.
1,208,321 copies have already been sold worldwide thru the several retailers that are out there as pre-orders.
The store shelves will be empty in the first month from people that found out from friends late or wanted to grab one from the local store.
So post launch store purchase will see another 800k to 1.5million in sales in the first month or two.
Then there will be the tests at 3 month mark, 6 month mark, and new game release times.
My year from now prediction is 2.5 million players with churn when new games release that drops it to 1.8million.
People don't stay in touch with reality. Starcraft II, 700k sales in the U.S. Rift is a U.S. game with a few fans in Europe.
You are saying Rift has sold more right now, than Starcraft II did in the US when it was retail.
Come back to Earth please.
"with a few fans in Europe" doesn't rly fit. im living in Germany and everybody i know, who is playing computer games, knows about rift and is pretty interested in this game
Comments
Wanna bet money on it?
Please?
I don't know that we can really presume what will or will not happen after launch, but I would suspect that this estimate of 1.2 mil is likely close to the truth. Rift CE plus Standard are, combined, outselling Cataclism on Amazon. Rift CE is slaughtering DCUO in terms of PC sales at Amazon. For a game to be selling that well through an online retailer when it hasn't even been released - meaning you'd expect more sales are going directly through the game site - is pretty unreal, especially since DCUO was a big title and was just released a few weeks ago. Considering how well it is selling at Amazon, how I see RIFT banner ads on just about every website I visit - gaming or otherwise, how Trion stated they were hoping for AoC or WAR numbers upon release and have recently stated that they are selling better than they had expected, 1.2 mil seems like a very reasonable estimate.
edit: Let me restate: 1.2 mil seems like it is a reasonable estimate for what they will sell upon release, not necessarily right this very moment.
I was pleasantly surprised when I went from Apprentice to full 5 star Elite in under 2 months. I was pleasantly surprised again when I went from Elite to just barely Hardcore in 2 weeks. Apprentice, here I come!
The market for MMO games is arguably bigger then the market for strategy/RTS games.
Gamasutra said SC2 sold 1.5 million copies in the US and Europe in 48 hours.
It is not hard to believe that a well marketed and well hyped game such as Rift could sell 1.5 million + boxes within the first couple of days.
There are no public sales figures for Rift right now. Anything you hear is going to be "from a friend" kind of thing. I would think the sales figures will exceed a million, but that's just based on the people I work with who are going to buy it. Out of 10 people who are currently playing WoW, 5 of them are buying Rift. A million doesn't seem unreasonable.
The only thing I know for sure is the number will be more than 80,000, since right now, roughly 80,000 people are in the beta and I would expect more people to actually order than are in the betas.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Sorry but 1 game is argueably bigger not MMOs in general.
That right there is the key statement.
Rift, as far as the beta has thus-far proven, is a game that is not broken.
It does indeed have the same "something new" appeal, maybe not from a mechanics standpoints like AoC's combat system, but new does not mean better in the MMO genre.
Polish goes a long way... it's hard to believe because most, if not every recent release has had a decidedly massive LACK of polish.
Blizzard has 2 games in the top 4 of best selling PC games of all time. SC and WoW, The Sims is first.
I think people who say Trion is in the same league have lost touch with reality. You need a big name and company behind it to sell a game that many times and you need international sales. Rift launches in the U.S. and part of Europe only.
I think 200.000 sales if they do well is good for a brand new company. It won't be much more.
Rift CE is still #1 best selling "Coming Soon" for PC video games above even the new Sims, Dragon Age 2, etc. and Rift standard is like #4.
What does that mean? Not sure.. but combine that with sales from Trion themselves, sales through places like Game Stop, Best Buy etc. and I don't think it's fair to laugh in the face of such "evidence" (be that as it may) that this game will sell well.
Initially.
Staying power could be another story, but no one here is capable of accurately predicting that.
*edit*
Rift is also #2 and #3 on Best Buys upcoming pre-orders list.
#2 and #4 on Gamestop pre-order list.
Yes I agree that Rift is very polished for being in beta and I am surprised about that really good job on Trion side.
But the the only thing new is the rifts and the invations and those two was cool features when I first entered beta 1 but now after beta 6 even back in beta 3 the novelty wore off for me and what we have left is boring quests mediocre crafting system
If people like Rift good show then and happy gaming but this is 2011 and it is time to put some real working hours into a game and not mass produce themepark MMO with the same formula.
If it's not broken, you are not innovating.
The question isn't really: "Will Rift outsell World of Warcraft?" because the answer there is going to be 'No.'
The real question is: Will Rift make money?
And I think it's safe to guess the answer to that is: Yes. It was developed by a small studio, presumably cost less money to make than WoW (which was an insanely expensive game) and might only need 50k-200k subscribers to keep everyone at Trion employed.
Do you treat music the same way you treat videogames? If an album doesn't go platinum, it must suck, right?
We all want our favorite games to be successful, but you can't measure every game against WoW, which is an anomaly anyway for MMO's.
Rift is well-made and I think it is targeting the right kind of player... People who enjoyed the core mechanics of World of Warcraft, or Everquest 2, or LOTRO, but who are burnt out and ready for something new. I think Rift has done that perfectly, if I'm any sort of evidence - I love LOTRO still, but after two maxed-out characters I'm pretty bored with it. After I played Beta 6 of Rift I preordered.
Aion sold on its release on west almost 1 milion copies, having played Aion for 1y, Rift is imo better game for western audience so I dont see reason why Rift shouldnt go over 500k easy.
Another things how many ppl will stay after SWTOR and GW2 release.
I think these people with the lowball numbers are going to be in for a surprise. While the game has it's flaws, the core of it is solid and can be adjusted.
This. Atleast RIFT has a game to sell, people will get what they pay for and not get a long list of "Coming Soon" features a la WAR & AoC.
The RIFT Beta has been very open in the fact that if you want to play it, all you have to do is about a five second search for a VIP key. Most have already played it and passed judgement and so I imagine the retention rate will be higher because the people that didn't like it most likely jumped shipped already.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
I would say 500K-2 M
With the 2 M I am being a lil generous, but I think it will be more likely 1 M area.
"When it comes to GW2 any game is fair game"
1 million preorders would be a realistic number. Whoever truly believes it won't reach even 500,000 should do their research. Nuff' said.
Too bad the game's still in beta. I was kinda waiting for "solid X-Fire guestimations".
How is that a solid estimation? Some people don't play games with x-fire on... I know I usualy dont'.
"When it comes to GW2 any game is fair game"
{Mod edit}
The game will sell at least as much as Aion and due to its end game and western style will steadily grow.
10 and 20 man raids are already in place at release for end game.
Some people will be dissapointed if they think Rift will Fail.
Might be the case, unless they're ahead of the current trend of MMO's and have some additional content on the pipeline, ready to be pushed into the retail
10 man raids will not be in for launch, as they stated in a podcast and 20 man raids, I think only 1 will be in at launch (at least, if the official forums are to be trusted), as well as raid rifts.
That said, my prediction: 300k-1.5m
300k in the "worst" case, I do think it will sell 500k+ copies though. I do think over 1m sold preorders is very much possible; Rift is polished, fun and word of the mouth goes a long way.
You should've paid more attention to the podcast, they removed 10 man raids and "remade" them into 10 man and 20 man dungeons, instead of raids.
"In our original design we also preferred to have both available. But at least for now we are moving all instanced Raids to be tuned for 20-players. We may add the 10-man versions back in post-launch but I'm not making any promises. This is has not been a quick decision. We have been discussing this option for awhile. Below is the "short version" of some of the main reasons we changed our design.
1. We're providing significantly more raid content then we originally scoped. This has allowed us to provide parties of both sizes content that is uniquely tailored to them.
2. We took a close look at the feedback and questions we received from our player-base AND took a very close look at "other-game(s)" that provided content with multiple raid sizes. Our general consensus is that there can be significant negative effects on the players and guilds as they try to both maximize their gear acquisition and straddle the two different raid-sizes.
3. Making this change streamlines our design process. There is a significant time investment in trying to balance difficulty and rewards to the two raid sizes. What we didn't want was there to be an "easier path" to progression. We knew this ahead of time and were prepared for it. But now this frees up our resources to provide a higher-quality experience and more content overall... or as I like call it "MoreBetter".
For those of you in smaller guilds we totally understand your concerns. We have several designers on the instance team that play in 10-man guilds. But we do hope that you can participate in the 20-man content either by joining forces with another small guild or perhaps growing the size of your own. Even if you don't there will still be a lot of 10-man content to enjoy throughout Rift."
(sorry for derailing the thread)
I think it will sell around 800k for initial sales. It would do well to retain 300k-400k subscribers after 6 months (not because it is a bad game but because that is what history has shown us other than the 800 lb gorrilla). It doesn't quite have the appeal that Age of Conan and Warhammer had but the equalizer is that it is releasing at a very opportune time.
"with a few fans in Europe" doesn't rly fit. im living in Germany and everybody i know, who is playing computer games, knows about rift and is pretty interested in this game
No it won't fail but it won't succeed either, it will endup in the mass produced mediocre themepark bing.
If it's not broken, you are not innovating.